The Main Event of UFC London is finally here as we bring you a betting prediction and pick for this headlining bout between ranked Featherweight (145) contenders. No. 1 Movsar Evloev of Russia will take on England's own No. 3 Lerone Murphy to determine a potential title challenger. Check our UFC odds series for the Evloev-Murphy prediction and pick.
Movsar Evloev (19-0) is a perfect 9-0 inside the UFC since arriving in 2019. He's won his last three fights via unanimous decision over the likes of Diego Lopes, Arnold Allen, and Aljamain Sterling, all in dominant fashion, hoping to earn his first title shot with another win. Evloev stands 5-foot-7 with a 72.5-inch reach.
Lerone Murphy (17-0-1) is also a perfect 9-0-1 during his UFC tenure since 2019. His recent wins include consecutive unanimous wins over Dan Ige and Josh Emmett, along with a recent KO win over hyped prospect Aaron Pico. He'll look for a title shot of his own in his home country. Murphy stands 5-foot-9 with a 73.5-inch reach.
UFC London Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC London Odds: Movsar Evloev-Lerone Murphy Odds
Movsar Evloev: -250
Lerone Murphy: +205
Over 4.5 rounds: -345
Under 4.5 rounds: +250
Why Movsar Evloev Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Aljamain Sterling – U DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 3 KO/TKO, 4 SUB
Movsar Evloev emerged victorious once again in his last bout against former champ Aljamain Sterling, landing four of five takedowns to sway the judges in giving him the unanimous nod. However, his striking numbers were most impressive as he outpaced Sterling 136-145 total strikes on the feet. This comes off a similar performance against Arnold Allen, where he displayed his full skill set, and Evloev appears to be in the prime of his career and ready for a title shot.
Movsar Evloev is accurate on 48% of his takedown attempts, but he's landing a blistering 4.67 average takedowns per 15 minutes. Not only is he putting opponents on the ground, but he's able to chain takedowns together and keep opponents guessing with his work on the feet. He does a tremendous job of attacking the head with boxing and perfectly timing double or single-leg takedowns along the fence.
Evloev's opponent also sports a questionable 51% takedown defense, and while Murphy has never been submitted before, Evloev should be able to threaten with the idea of submissions from the top. If Murphy chooses to stand and strike with him, Evloev has already proven that he's more than comfortable doing so and is deceptively fast with his boxing combinations.
Why Lerone Murphy Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Aaron Pico – KO (spinning elbow, R1)
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 8 KO/TKO
Lerone Murphy put together a stellar performance at UFC 319 in silencing the hype behind Aaron Pico's debut. Touted as a world-class wrestler, Murphy made quick work of Pico on the feet and ultimately landed a perfect spinning elbow to knock his opponent out cold. The win had to have been a huge confidence boost for Murphy after feeling disrespected for being dealt a debut fighter – now he has his opportunity to take the No. 1 ranking and earn a title shot.
Lerone Murphy is solid everywhere the fight takes place and hasn't really shown any noticeable weaknesses in his game up to this point. He'll be working behind a slight size advantage and is likely the faster man on his feet in terms of his striking. Typically very active with his leg kicks, he may bypass some of those against Evloev, risking it getting caught and taken down.
Still, Murphy is very defensive in his own right and won't allow Evloev too many clean shots on the feet without returning something of his own. On the ground, he's very sound defensively and is likely to be defending several submissions throughout the fight if he finds himself there. The biggest focus for Murphy in those situations will be getting to his feet quickly and forcing Evloev to beat him on the feet.
Final Movsar Evloev-Lerone Murphy Prediction & Pick
This is another great headlining fight as the O2 Arena should erupt in support of Lerone Murphy during this Main Event. Both fighters are 9-0 in the division and rightfully deserve a title shot with a win here. We give Evloev the edge on the ground while giving Murphy the edge on the feet.
While Lerone Murphy is likely to put solid striking combinations together early, it's only a matter of time before Evloev will begin chain wrestling and landing takedowns on Murphy's questionable defense. He's done this to better fighters in the past, and I don't expect Murphy to catch him clean on the chin to end this fight in the meantime.
For our final prediction, let's roll with Movsar Evloev to win another five-round decision as he'll struggle to put Murphy away, but will dominate on the scorecards with his wrestling.
Final Movsar Evloev-Lerone Murphy Prediction & Pick: Movsar Evloev (-250); OVER 4.5 Rounds (-345)
