Two bantamweight veterans collide at UFC Vancouver on Saturday when Cody Gibson (21-11) takes on Aoriqileng (25-12, one no-contest). It is time to continue our UFC Vancouver odds series with a Gibson-Aoriqileng prediction and pick.
Gibson, 38, will make his sixth consecutive walk to the octagon and 10th UFC appearance overall. “The Renegade” is looking to rebound after having his two-fight win streak snapped by Da'Mon Blackshear at UFC Vegas 104.
Aoriqileng, 32, will be fighting for the first time in 2025, ending a 13-month layoff. “The Mongolian Murderer” last competed at Noche UFC when he lost a unanimous decision to Raul Rosas Jr. at The Sphere. Aoriqileng has not gotten his hand raised in the octagon since October 2023 when he beat Johnny Muñoz Jr. by decision at UFC Vegas 80.
Here are the UFC Vancouver Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vancouver odds: Cody Gibson-Aoriqileng odds
Cody Gibson: -166
Aoriqileng: +140
Over 2.5 rounds: -188
Under 2.5 rounds: +145
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Why Cody Gibson will win
Gibson is the definition of a pressure fighter. He almost always has a height and reach advantage over his opponents but never seems to care and always looks to push the pace. Gibson might not be the most technically proficient fighter, but he never stops moving forward and tests his opponent's will more than anything.
If the fight stays standing, Aoriqileng can hurt Gibson. But the Mongolian is nearly the opposite of Gibson and prefers to pick his shots from the outside. He does not tend to fare well against pressure and particularly struggles against fighters who throw caution to the wind like Gibson does.
Aoriqileng is 2-2 in the UFC when he cedes a takedown, but that number should be worse. None of the fighters he has beaten are still with the UFC, and he would have lost to Johnny Muñoz Jr. had the latter landed more than seven significant strikes in a 15-minute bout. Gibson has a much more aggressive and well-rounded style that should exploit his grappling advantage.
Why Aoriqileng will win
When he is at his best, Gibson is a freight train who brings the same style against every opponent he faces. The biggest concern for his career at this point is age as the Californian recently celebrated his 38th birthday. Gibson has yet to show signs of slowing down, but his all-action fight style does not typically age well.
Besides his age, Gibson also has several defensive concerns. He tends to overwhelm his opponents in the first round, but his losses come against those who can survive that initial onslaught and quickly turn the tables on him. Aoriqileng has just one knockout in the UFC, but he has the power to hurt Gibson, whose reckless approach causes him to absorb nearly as many strikes as he lands.
Aoriqileng has struggled against grapplers, but his recent shortcomings have been against technical strikers. Even in his loss to Rosas, he was able to neutralize the Mexican's grappling but struggled with distance on the feet. Before the Rosas fight, he had not lost to a grappler since his second UFC fight against Cody Durden in 2021.
Final Cody Gibson-Aoriqileng prediction & pick
This fight could easily be a pink-slip bout as neither has had much recent success in the UFC. They are a combined 3-5-1 in the last two years, and fighters in similar positions tend to receive the axe in the fall when the company brings in a new crop of talent on Dana White's Contender Series.
The high stakes favor Gibson on paper as the naturally more aggressive fighter. He wants this fight on the ground, and Aoriqileng has historically given up takedowns in matchups against grapplers.
“The Mongolian Murderer” has ceded 3.75 takedowns in his four fights against opponents who average more than 2.0 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC. Gibson averages 2.13 takedowns per 15 minutes.
A striking battle favors Aoriqileng, but Gibson only has one speed. Although he is just 3-6 in the UFC, all of Gibson's losses have been against technical grapplers who were able to neutralize his approach with superior technical skills and physicality.
That is not Aoriqileng, who has faded late in fights on multiple occasions. Aoriqileng has been to the scorecards five times in the UFC and lost the deciding third round in four of them.
Final Cody Gibson-Aoriqileng Prediction & Pick: Cody Gibson (-166), Over 2.5 (-188)
