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Undefeated light heavyweight champions collide when WBC interim champion David Benavidez (29-0) meets WBA regular champion David Morrell (11-0). It's time to continue our boxing odds series with a Benavidez-Morrell prediction and pick.
Both fighters will be making their second career fight at light heavyweight after moving up from super middleweight in their last respective bouts. Although just one year older, Benavidez has more than double the professional experience of Morrell. ‘The Mexican Monster' made his divisional debut against Oleksandr Gvozdyk in June 2024, winning a clean unanimous decision to become a two-division titleholder.
While without the same level of professional experience, Morrell was a former multi-time amateur champion before turning pro in 2013. After five defenses of the WBA regular super middleweight title, Morrell moved up to light heavyweight in August 2024 and cruised past Radivoje Kalajdzic with a unanimous decision.
Here are the Benavidez-Morrell odds, courtesy of FanDuel
Boxing Odds: David Benavidez-David Morrell Odds
David Benavidez: -196
David Morrell: +150
Over 10.5 Rounds: -360
Under 10.5 Rounds: +250
How to Watch David Benavidez-David Morrell
Time: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
Main event ring walk (estimated): 11 p.m. ET / 8 p.m. ET
TV/Stream: Amazon Prime Video PPV
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access / Save $30)*
Why David Benavidez Will Win
Looking at the two fighters' records, it is easy to see who has the experience edge. Benavidez enters the fight with wins over former champions Demetrius Andrade, Anthony Dirrell, and Caleb Plant, albeit at super middleweight. The weight change will not matter much in this matchup, given that both have spent the majority of their careers at 168 pounds before moving up in 2024.
Records aside, the style clash suits Benavidez well. He loves setting up his finishes by attacking the body more than most. Morrell is not the most defensively disciplined fighter who relies on a stagnant high guard, often leaving his lengthy torso open. In his last fight with Gvozdyk, Benavidez landed 38 percent of his total punches to the body.
Morrell will be the more athletic fighter but can be sloppy with his approaches. He often gets too excited chasing opponents around the ring with his darting technique. If Kalajdzic, who countered him several times in his last fight, had the power that Benavidez does, Morrell might not be in this position.
Why David Morrell Will Win
The timing of the situation is tough for Benavidez. He has been chasing Canelo Alvarez for years but can never seem to secure the big-money fight, thus leaving him in this spot with Morrell. A big knockout could potentially get Alvarez's attention, but it is easy to see Benavidez overlooking this fight with Morrell. That would be a fatal mistake.
While Benavidez's timing is elite, Morrell will be the first fighter to match his speed at 168 or 175 pounds. In an open-stance matchup, Morrell will also crucially have the better footwork. Benavidez is prone to shifting off-balance and lunging into range, whereas Morrell is always centered and never loses the foot position battle.
The biggest problem Morrell poses is in his southpaw stance. Since he first fought for a world title in 2017, Benavidez has fought just one southpaw: Demetrius Andrade. Benavidez won that fight, but Morrell is a vastly different and much more aggressive fighter than Andrade.
Final David Benavidez-David Morrell Prediction & Pick
This fight has the necessary ingredients for a potential barnburner. By the year's end, it could very well have been the most underrated fight of 2025. A lot has to do with Benavidez, who everyone loves, but by the night's end, people will remember Morrell as well.
After his recent wins over Andrade, Gvozdyk, Plant, and David Lemieux, it is hard to fade Benavidez in this spot, especially against another former super middleweight. However, Morrell could potentially be a nightmare for Benavidez. The body will be there for the WBC interim champion, but Morrell's speed, athleticism, vision, and head movement are being severely underrated. Benavidez is as gritty as they come, but all of Morrell's recent opponents seemed to believe they had him figured out until they got into the ring with him.
Despite the odds suggesting a close fight, almost all the public bets are on Benavidez. That is not surprising, given that he is the more popular and well-known champion, but the market is clearly indicating value on Morrell. If Premier Boxing Champions was looking for a tune-up fight for Benavidez as they continue to chase Alvarez, they did a very poor job.
Final David Benavidez-David Morrell Prediction & Pick: David Morrell (+150)
