Coming off their first loss since Week 3, the New England Patriots look to rebound in Week 16 on the road against the semi-resurgent Baltimore Ravens. It is time to continue our NFL odds series with a Sunday Night Football Patriots-Ravens prediction and pick.
The Patriots trot into the matchup one week after having their 10-game win streak snapped, dropping their record to 11-3. New England was the hottest team in the league entering its rematch with the Buffalo Bills and got off to an explosive 21-0 lead, but could not overcome the weather elements and Josh Allen.
The Ravens are coming off a dominant 24-0 win over the Cincinnati Bengals to get them back to .500. The victory snapped a two-game skid while avenging a loss to the Bengals just two weeks before. Baltimore is now 6-2 since its Week 7 bye and has been on pace with the Patriots as one of the best in the league during that span.
NFL odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Patriots vs. Ravens odds
New England Patriots: +3 (-115)
Baltimore Ravens: -3 (-105)
Over: 48.5 (-105)
Under: 48.5 (-115)
Patriots vs. Ravens key injuries
Patriots
LT Will Campbell, Out (IR – Grade 3 MCL sprain)
DT Milton Williams III, Out (IR – high ankle sprain)
LB Harold Landry III, Questionable (knee)
LB Christian Elliss, Questionable (illness)
CB Carlton Davis III, Questionable (groin)
CB Marcus Jones, Questionable (knee)
Ravens
QB Lamar Jackson, Questionable (illness)
LT Ronnie Stanley, Questionable (knee/ankle)
LB Teddye Buchanan, Questionable (knee)
LB Roquan Smith, Questionable (knee)
LB Kyle Van Noy, Questionable (quad)
CB Chidobe Awuzie, Questionable (foot)
Patriots vs. Ravens betting trends
- Patriots are 9-5 against the spread
- Patriots are 3-2 against the spread as the underdog, and 3-0 ATS as a road underdog
- Patriots are 2-0 SU/ATS in 2025 after a loss
- Patriots are 8-6 to the over
- Ravens are 5-9 against the spread
- Ravens are 4-7 against the spread with Lamar Jackson
- Ravens are 5-7 against the spread as the favorite, and 2-4 ATS as a home favorite
- Ravens are 8-6 to the over
Patriots vs. Ravens matchup
Both teams approach the end of the week with a plethora of injuries, but that is to be expected at this point in the season. Friday's practice update will be the biggest indicator of which players will be active on Sunday.
The Patriots' Week 15 collapse was not a great sign, but it came under extreme circumstances in a snowed-out game. As a result, Drake Maye struggled to keep the ball rolling once the snow picked up and ended with a season-low 155 passing yards.
The weather should not be an issue on Sunday night, with no precipitation forecasted in Baltimore. Expect Maye to rebound against a Ravens defense that ranks 26th in passing yards allowed and has given up at least 220 passing yards in its last four games.
Likewise, the Ravens need to get their offense going early to embark on another win streak. Baltimore is at its best when it gets out ahead early and can lean on the Derrick Henry-led run game in the second half.
When the Ravens struggle early and fall behind, they are much less dangerous as an overall unit. Jackson struggles when he is forced to become a drop-back passer. Baltimore is just 2-6 when Jackson surpasses 200 passing yards.
The Patriots allow the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game, making for a nightmare matchup for the Ravens' offense. However, New England has not been nearly as dominant without Milton Williams and just allowed 107 rushing yards to James Cook.
Patriots vs. Ravens prediction and pick
Injuries aside, this is a concerning matchup for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' offense, which has been hot-and-cold over the last month. However, four of Baltimore's five losses with Jackson under center have come against man-heavy defenses, which the Patriots are.
Aside from his loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, the rest of Jackson's losses have come against teams deploying man coverage at a top-14 rate. The Patriots utilize such schemes on 30.9 percent of their defensive snaps, ninth-most in the league, according to Pro Football Focus.
The Ravens need to establish their run game early to win this game, which teams have struggled to do against the Patriots this season. However, in its last three games without Milton Williams, New England has given up 133 rushing yards per game, a significant increase from its season-long numbers. It does not help that neither Harold Landry III nor Robert Spillane practiced on Thursday.
The Ravens will have their hands full with Maye, but their seventh-best red zone defense has held all but one of their last nine opponents below 20 points. This is a much better offensive matchup than it seems like at first glance for Jackson to regain his footing.
Prediction: Baltimore Ravens -3 (-115), Under 48.5 (-115)
