The Sun Belt Champion hits the road in hopes of pulling a first-round upset. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a James Madison-Oregon CFP first-round prediction and pick.
JMU has been stellar this year. They opened up with a win over Weber State, and then lost on the road to Louisville by 14. Since then, it has been complete domination. They have won every game with just one game within one score, a 14-7 win on the road over Georgia State. Still, the Sun Belt Conference Championship should give pause. While the Duke ended up winning the game 31-14, it was a three-point game into the fourth quarter, where JMU scored a touchdown on offense and returned a fumble for a score to win the game.
Meanwhile, Oregon is 11-1. They opened up 5-0, with a double-overtime win over Penn State. They would then lose to Indiana 30-20. Since then, Oregon has had just one close call. It was an 18-16 win over Iowa on the road. Beyond that, they have won every game by 10 or more points. The Ducks did not get to play in the Big Ten Championship, though, with Ohio State and Indiana both undefeated. Regardless, Oregon has lost both coordinators, but both will coach in this game, including Tosh Lupoi, who said he never considered missing the game.
College Football betting odds courtesy of DraftKings.
James Madison vs. Oregon Odds
James Madison: +21 (-110)
Oregon -21 (-110)
Over: 47.5 (-108)
Under: 47.5 (-115)
James Madison vs. Oregon Key Injuries
James Madison- CB Jamal Olford (Out), LB Lee Johnson (Out), LB Brandon Figque (Out), OL Cam McNair (Out), DL Immanuel Bush (Probable), CB Roddery McWilliams (Probable)
Oregon- WR Kyler Kasper (Out), WR Justius Lowe (Out), DB Solomon David (Out), RB Da'Juan Riggs (Out), OL Gernorris Wilson (Out), WR Dakorien Moore (Questionable), WR Gary Bryant Jr. (Questionable), DB Sione Laulea (Questionable), WR Evan Stewart (Questionable), DB Trey McNutt (Questionable)
James Madison vs. Oregon Betting Trends
– James Madison is 8-5 against the spread this year, but 4-2 on the road.
– Oregon is 8-4 against the spread this year, and 5-2 at home this season.
– When an underdog, James Madison, has covered the only time they were an underdog this year, but lost the game.
– When the favorite, Oregon, is 7-4 against the spread, and is 3-0 in its last three.
– The under has been the right side for James Madison games in eight of 13 matchups, but just once in the last three.
– The over has hit in six of 12 games for Oregon.
Keys to James Madison vs. Oregon Matchup
For James Madison, everything starts on the ground. When they have controlled the ground game and the clock with it, JMU has come out with wins. The team is ninth in the nation in points per game and 18th in yards per game. They have been great on the ground, sitting fifth in the nation in rushing yards, while also sitting 88th in the pass. The Oregon defense has been solid against the pass, so the game is going to rely on the running game.
Wayne Knight has been the main guy on the ground. He is tenth in FBS in rushing this year, running for 1,263 yards and nine touchdowns. He has also been a major factor in tight wins. Knight ran for 212 yards against Troy in the Sun Belt Championship, while also running for 126 yards and a score against Washington State. Still, he struggled against Louisville, running for just 12 yards. Oregon has been great on defense this year. They are eighth in the nation in opponent points per game and second in opponent yards per game. They have been amazing against the pass, sitting second, but they are 20th against the run. Bryce Bothcher will be the main player against the run. He leads the team with 104 tackles while having four tackles for a loss.
Meanwhile, Oregon needs to attack the passing defense of James Madison. Oregon has been great on offense this year, sitting 11th in the nation in points per game and ninth in yards per game. They are 11th in the run while sitting 45th in the pass. The leader of the offense has been Dante Moore, who has passed for 2,733 yards and 24 touchdowns. He has just six interceptions this year as well. The Ducks quarterback has also done a great job of spreading the ball around. He has five receivers with over 25 receptions, and another five with over 300 yards.
James Madison has been great on defense this year, sitting 10th in the nation in opponent points per game and third in opponent yards per game. They are second against the run but 15th against the pass. James Madison will need to find a way to stop the passing attack of Oregon. This starts with Brandon Finney Jr., who has seven pass breakups, an interception, and two forced fumbles.
James Madison vs. Oregon Prediction and Pick
This will be an Oregon win. The Oregon team is one of the best in the nation and had an argument to be one of the teams earning a bye. They have just one loss on the year, and that was to the top-seeded Indiana. Still, James Madison also has just one loss on the year to Louisville, and it was 14 points in the second game of the season. The JMU defense has been stellar this year, and should be in a position to slow down the run attack of the Oregon offense. Meanwhile, the Oregon defense has been solid, but not the best. James Madison will be able to score some in this game. It will not be enough to get the win, but enough to keep it tight.
Final James Madison vs. Oregon Prediction and Pick: James Madison +21 (-110) and Over 47.5 (-108)
