It is a rematch of an early-season match-up as Tulane visits Ole Miss in the first round of the playoffs. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a Tulane-Ole Miss CFP first round prediction and pick.
Tulane is 11-2 on the season. They opened up season 3-0 with wins over Northwestern, South Alabama, and Duke before a 45-10 loss to Ole Miss. They would then win three more before a loss to UTSA on the road, 48-26. The Green Wave would then win four straight to end the regular season, before facing North Texas in the American Conference Championship. The Green Wave dominated the game, leading 24-7 at the end of the first half, and going on to win 34-21. Still, the team is dealing with the loss of their head coach, as Tulane's Jon Sumrall has accepted the job at Florida. He will still be coaching the playoffs for Tulane.
Meanwhile, Ole Miss is 11-1 on the season. They opened up the season 6-0, with wins over Arkansas, Tulane, and LSU. The Rebels also survived a three-point victory over Washington State. They would lose their only game of the season on the road aganst Georgia, losing 43-35 on the road to the Bulldogs. They have since won five straight games, including a win over Oklahoma and their rival, Mississippi State. Ole Miss will be under an interim coach in this game, as Pete Golding takes over for Lane Kiffin.
Tulane struggled against Ole Miss the first time they faced off. Tulane was down 23-3 at the end of the first half. They would be down 45-3 until scoring their first touchdown of the game, and losing the game 45-10.
College Football betting odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Tulane vs. Ole Miss Odds
Tulane: +17.5 (-112)
Ole Miss: -17.5 (-108)
Over: 56.5 (-112)
Under: 56.5 (-108)
Tulane vs. Ole Miss Key Injuries
Tulane- CB Dorian Jackson (Questionable), QB Brendan Sullivan (Questionable), RB Maurie Turner (Questionable), S Carson Klein (Questionable), DL Gerros Generson (Out), LB Dickson Agu (Questionable)
Ole Miss- CB Antoio Kite (Questionable), LB Ramond Collins (Questionable)
Tulane vs. Ole Miss Betting Trends
– Tulane is 6-7 against the spread this year, but 3-3 on the road.
– Ole Miss is 7-5 against the spread this year, and 5-3 at home this season.
– When an underdog, Tulane has covered in two of the three games, but did not cover against Ole Miss last time they faced.
– When the favorite, Ole Miss, is 6-4 against the spread, and is 2-2 in the last four games as a favorite.
– The under has been the right side for Tulane games in nine of 13 matchups, including four straight.
– The over has hit in six of 12 games for Ole Miss.
Keys to Tulane vs. Ole Miss Matchup
The key for Tulane is going to be the play of Jake Retzlaff. The offense has been solid this year, but not phenomenal. They are 43rd in points per game and 32nd in yards per game. They are 50th in the run and 51st in passing yards per game. Retzlaff, the BYU transfer, has been amazing this year. He has passed for 2,862 yards this year with 14 touchdowns. He has thrown six interceptions, though. Meanwhile, he has been great on the ground, running for 610 yards and finding the end zone 16 times. He had his worst game of the year against Ole Miss, going just five of 17 passes without a touchdown through the air or ground. Still, he has run for touchdowns in seven straight games.
Still, the Ole Miss defense has been solid this year. They are 36th in opponent points per game and 45th in opponent yards per game. They have been solid against the run, sitting 41st, but even better against the pass, sitting 27th in FBS. This is where Wydett Williams Jr. will come into play. The safety has been great this year, with eight pass breaks up, three interceptions, and a forced fumble. If he can be a ballhawk in the secondary, it could be a long day for Retzlaff.
Meanwhile, the key for Ole Miss will be quarterback Trindiad Chambliss. The offense has been stellar this year, sitting 12th in points per game while sitting third in yards per game. They are 21st in the run, but sixth in the pass. Chambliss did not begin the season as the starter, but by the third game, as earned the job with the help of an injury to Austin Simmons. He passed for 3,016 yards and 18 touchdowns this year while also finding the endzone on the ground six times. He had also been stellar as of late. In the last three games, he has thrown for 969 yards and eight touchdowns with just one interception. He has thrown three interceptions all year long.
The Tulane defense has been good this year, but not outstanding. They are 42nd in opponent points per game while sitting 63rd in opponent yards per game. Further, they are 29th against the run, but 118th against the pass this year. If Tulane is going to take the win in this game, it will start with solid play from the secondary. Jaheim Johnson is the key player there. He has eight pass breakups this year, to go with his four interceptions and a forced fumble.
Tulane vs. Ole Miss Prediction and Pick
This is the second meeting between these two teams. In the first game, Ole Miss was great at converting on third down and kept the Tulane defense on the field. Tulane has been better the rest of the way in third-down conversions on defense, but still finished 73rd in the nation. Meanwhile, Ole Miss was 27th in third-down conversions this year on offense. Adding to the issues was the Rebels' defense against Retzlaff. The Tulane quarterback completed just five of 17 passes for 56 yards in the game. It was his worst game of the year, and he will be better in this one. Still, the disparity in talent between the two teams is massive. Unless off-field distractions around Lane Kiffin's leaving the program cause issues, the Rebels should run away with this game.
Final Tulane vs. Ole Miss Prediction and Pick: Ole Miss -17.5 (-108) and Over 56.5 (-112)
