UFC 323: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan 2 continues on the prelims with a fight between Ibo Aslan and Iwo Baraniewski in the light heavyweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Aslan-Iwo Baraniewski prediction and pick.
.Ibo Aslan (14-3) enters UFC 323 looking to rebound from a gritty decision loss to Billy Elekana after previously earning multiple highlight-reel KOs, including a Contender Series finish of Paulo Renato Jr. His proven knockout power and UFC experience remain his calling cards as he comes into his fight this weekend against Iwo Baraniewski.
Iwo Baraniewski (6-0) storms into UFC 323 off a blistering 20-second knockout of Mahamed Aly on Contender Series, after first-round finishes of Kamil Stachura and Sylwester Borys on the Polish regional scene. The undefeated prospect’s explosive power and fast starts stand out as he comes into his fight this weekend against Ibo Aslan.
Here are the UFC 323 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 323 odds: Ibo Aslan-Iwo Baraniewski odds
Ibo Aslan: +160
Iwo Baraniewski: -192
Over 1.5 rounds: +150
Under 1.5 rounds: -195
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Why Ibo Aslan will win
- Last Fight: (L) Billy Elekana – DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 14 (14 KO/TKO)
Ibo Aslan has the kind of proven knockout power and UFC-tested experience that can punish Baraniewski’s aggressive entries at UFC 323. With 14 career wins all by knockout, his fast combinations and thudding low kicks are tailor-made to exploit a Contender Series graduate still adjusting to the UFC level.
Aslan also brings a major edge in strength of schedule, having already shared the cage with rugged veterans like Ion Cutelaba and Billy Elekana. Those tougher minutes should translate into better composure in the pocket, whereas Baraniewski’s regional and DWCS finishes came against less seasoned opposition.
Technically, Aslan works well behind feints, chopping the legs and closing distance with heavy overhands and uppercuts. If Baraniewski overcommits to boxing exchanges the way he did in his 20-second DWCS knockout, he risks walking onto counters from a far more dangerous puncher.
Even if the early storm passes, Aslan’s higher output and experience in longer fights favor him as this moves into the second and third rounds. Expect Aslan to weather some early fire, find Baraniewski’s timing, and eventually land the kind of clean power shot that secures a statement TKO victory on Saturday.
Why Iwo Baraniewski will win
- Last Fight: (W) Mahamed Aly – KO/TKO R1
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 6 (4 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Iwo Baraniewski has the kind of explosive power and athleticism that can capitalize on Aslan’s recent defensive lapses. Riding the confidence of a 20-second knockout on Contender Series, he carries serious knockout threat in both hands and is comfortable initiating wild exchanges early.
Stylistically, Baraniewski’s sharp boxing entries and ability to counter over the top match up well with Aslan’s tendency to load up and leave openings. If Aslan presses forward behind wide hooks or predictable low kicks, Baraniewski can time the right hand that has already proven fight-ending at higher speeds.
Beyond pure striking, Baraniewski’s judo base and strong top game offer a valuable Plan B if the firefight gets too dicey. Trips, body-lock takedowns, and heavy ground-and-pound could expose Aslan’s historically suspect grappling defense and sap his power as the minutes pile up.
Add in Baraniewski’s momentum as an undefeated prospect and the pressure on Aslan coming off back-to-back losses, and the Pole feels like the fresher, looser fighter. Expect Baraniewski to survive some early heat, then either detonate a kill shot on the feet or ride dominant positions to a statement stoppage or clear decision.
Final Ibo Aslan-Iwo Baraniewski prediction & pick
This is a volatile light heavyweight matchup where both men can end it early, but Baraniewski looks slightly better positioned to get his hand raised. The undefeated Pole brings fresher momentum, sharper recent form, and enters as the betting favorite for a reason.
On tape, Baraniewski’s explosiveness, fast starts, and polished boxing combinations pair with underrated judo and wrestling. That gives him multiple paths to exploit Aslan’s defensive gaps, whether by timing counters over Aslan’s wide hooks or mixing in takedowns to blunt the Turk’s power.
Aslan absolutely carries fight-changing knockout power and far more UFC experience, but he is also coming off back-to-back losses that exposed issues with output and durability over longer minutes. If this becomes more than an early brawl, Baraniewski’s pace and willingness to pressure could start tilting exchanges his way.
Given Baraniewski’s undefeated record, recent 20-second DWCS knockout, and ability to threaten both on the feet and in clinch/grappling sequences, the lean is toward the newcomer making a statement in his debut. Expect a chaotic first round, with Baraniewski eventually breaking through for a early-round TKO in his UFC debut at UFC 323.
Final Ibo Aslan-Iwo Baraniewski Prediction & Pick: Iow Baraniewski (-192), Under 1.5 Rounds (-195)
