UFC 323: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan 2 continues on the prelims with a fight between Marvin Vettori and Brunno Ferreira in the middleweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Vettori-Ferreira prediction and pick.
Marvin Vettori (19-8-1) enters UFC 323 off back-to-back decision wars, dropping a five-round rematch to Roman Dolidze before a bruising ‘Fight of the Night' loss to Brendan Allen. The durable middleweight remains a volume southpaw with strong wrestling fundamentals as he comes into his fight this weekend against Brunno Ferreira.
Brunno Ferreira (14-2) storms into UFC 323 riding a two-fight finish streak, submitting Armen Petrosyan and Jackson McVey after succumbing to a submission himself to Abus Magomedov late. The Brazilian wrecking ball has finished all 14 wins inside the distance as he comes into his fight this weekend against Marvin Vettori.
Here are the UFC 323 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 323 odds: Marvin Vettori-Brunno Ferreira odds
Marvin Vettori: -118
Brunno Ferreira: -102
Over 2.5 rounds: -154
Under 2.5 rounds: +120
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Why Marvin Vettori will win
- Last Fight: (L) Brendan Allen – DEC
- Last 5: 1-4
- Finishes: 11 (2 KO/TKO/9 SUB)
Marvin Vettori has the exact toolkit to drag Brunno Ferreira into the kind of ugly, grinding fight he hates at UFC 323. His five-round experience, elite durability, and proven cardio give him a massive edge the longer this bout extends past Ferreira’s usual early finishing window.
Wrestling and clinch control are Vettori’s clearest paths. With superior takedown accuracy, stronger defense, and heavy fence pressure, he can smother Ferreira against the cage, mat-return him repeatedly, and steadily sap the explosiveness from the Brazilian’s shots.
On the feet, Vettori’s southpaw jab, high guard, and volume striking are built to survive chaos and win minutes rather than moments. If he maintains discipline early, slips the wild overhands, and counters into clinches, he can blunt Ferreira’s power and rack up scoring combinations while avoiding big exchanges.
Most importantly, Vettori has shown repeatedly that he can absorb huge shots from elite middleweights and keep pushing forward. Once Ferreira begins to fade, expect the Italian to take over with grinding top control and attritional damage, cruising to a clear decision or potentially forcing a late ground-and-pound stoppage on Saturday night.
Why Brunno Ferreira will win
- Last Fight: (W) Jackson McVey – SUB R1
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 14 (9 KO/TKO/5 SUB)
Brunno Ferreira has the exact kind of explosive, early finishing threat that can finally crack Vettori’s legendary durability at UFC 323. With all 14 wins coming inside the distance and 11 first-round finishes, Ferreira’s blitzing power and aggression give him a massive Round 1 and Round 2 kill-shot edge.
Stylistically, Vettori’s high-guard, pressure-based boxing can actually play into Ferreira’s counters and wild overhands. If the Italian marches straight forward as usual, Ferreira’s hooks, uppercuts, and flying knees off the breaks can exploit his linear entries and lack of one-shot deterrent power.
Ferreira is also a much more dangerous grappler than his brawling reputation suggests, carrying a slick submission game with front chokes and arm triangles that pair well with Vettori’s reactive shots. Any lazy level change or extended clinch could see Vettori snared in a guillotine or swept into bad positions where “The Hulk” can unleash fight-ending ground-and-pound.
Importantly, Vettori’s recent skid and the damage absorbed against Roman Dolidze and Brendan Allen hint that his legendary chin may finally be fading. Ferreira’s combination of marauding pressure, knockout power, and opportunistic submissions makes him a live underdog to score a rare finish over the Italian on Saturday night.
Final Marvin Vettori-Brunno Ferreira prediction & pick
This is one of the more fascinating crossroads fights at UFC 323, pairing Vettori’s durability and wrestling with Ferreira’s ferocious finishing. The betting market has this near pick’em, reflecting how live Ferreira is early and how strong Vettori’s advantages become if this leaves the first round.
For Ferreira, the clearest path is obvious: create chaos from the opening horn and hunt a knockout or submission before Vettori’s grinding style can take over. All 14 of his wins are finishes, most in Round 1, and his blitzing combinations plus opportunistic front chokes absolutely carry real upset potential.
However, Vettori’s statistical profile and skill set are built to survive early danger and win long fights. He throws more volume, has deeper five-round experience, and owns the more reliable wrestling and clinch game, with better takedown accuracy and defense to dictate where this bout is fought over 15 minutes.
If Vettori avoids getting clipped clean in the first seven or eight minutes, the expectation is his pressure, fence work, and top control start to sap Ferreira’s explosiveness. The lean is Marvin Vettori by hard-earned decision, banking clinch control and attritional damage after weathering some very dicey moments early.
Final Marvin Vettori-Brunno Ferreira Prediction & Pick: Marvin Vettori (-118), Over 2.5 Rounds (-154)
