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The Boston Red Sox and the Oakland Athletics will wrap up their three-game series on the Fourth of July. Both squads have already provided plenty of fireworks throughout the first two games of the series, and the finale will surely feature more. The teams have split the first two matchups, both of them being hotly contested games that were eventually decided by one run each. Expect the trend of close games to continue on Sunday. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Red Sox-Athletics prediction and pick.
Let's see how the bookmakers have set the lines for the game.
MLB Odds: Red Sox-Athletics Odds
Boston Red Sox ML (+100)
Oakland Athletics ML (-110)
Over 9 runs (-117)
Under 9 runs (-103)
Why The Red Sox Could Cover The Spread
The Red Sox lineup has carried them to a lot of wins this year, and that's what will give them the best shot of winning this game. One of the MLB's best offenses will face off against Athletics starter James Kaprielian, which is definitely a good matchup for Boston.
Kaprielian has been a pretty solid pitcher this season, putting up a 3.06 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. Both are good numbers, but I don't expect them to hold up against the Red Sox. Kaprielian is somewhat prone to giving up home runs which could lead to disaster against the Red Sox, a team that is tied for the league lead in homers hit. He also has problems with his control at times, walking plenty of batters. Despite his recent track record of success, Kaprielian could be in trouble against Boston.
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Another reason for optimism is the shaky Oakland bullpen. When Kaprielian gets pulled, a very questionable set of relievers come in after him. There's only one pitcher in the Athletics' bullpen who has an ERA below 3.00, and that's closer Lou Trivino. Most of the other relief arms sport ERAs much higher than 3.00, so the Red Sox should be excited about this matchup.
Why The Athletics Could Cover The Spread
Notice that the Red Sox starting pitcher was never mentioned as a reason why Boston could win this game. There's a reason for that. The Red Sox are entrusting the start to Nick Pivetta, something that has rarely worked out well this season.
Pivetta has struggled all year long, but it's gotten even worse lately. In his last seven starts he's sporting an ERA of 5.50 and a 1.43 WHIP. Both are terrible numbers, and I don't think things are going to get much better against the Athletics. Oakland is better offensively against right-handed pitching, giving them another advantage over Pivetta. He's also been giving up the long ball far too often recently, which could open the door for the Athletics to hang around in this game.
While Kaprielian has his faults, it's still encouraging to have him on the mound. He's already faced the Red Sox once this season, and he managed to pitch five innings and allow only one run. A repeat performance is possible, as Kaprielian has proven himself to be a reliable starting pitcher even against tough competition.
Final Red Sox-Athletics Prediction & Pick
We can expect this game to be another close one, and so do the bookmakers. This one is pretty much a coin flip so I'll just put my money on the underdog, as they have the same odds of winning as the favorites. Boston should be able to tag Kaprielian a little bit early and work on that Oakland bullpen late to help seal a series victory.
FINAL PICK: Boston Red Sox ML (+100)
