UFC Paris has reached its apex from Accor Arena as we're set to bring you a betting prediction and pick for this headlining bout atop the Middleweight (185) Division. No. 2-ranked Nassourdine Imavov of France will take on No. 7-ranked Caio Borralho of Brazil. Check the UFC odds for our Imavov-Borralho prediction and pick.
Nassourdine Imavov (16-4) has gone 8-2-0-1 since joining the UFC roster in 2020. He's riding an impressive four-fight winning streak and most recently notched the biggest win of his career over Israel Adesanya to earn his ranking. Now, he'll protect it against another hyped contender. Imavov stands 6-foot-3 with a 75-inch reach.
Caio Borralho (17-1) has gone a spotless 7-0 under the UFC since 2022. After two wins on Dana White's Contender Series, Borralho has been perfect up to this point, most recently taking out Jared Cannonier in a unanimous decision. He'll look to jump the rankings once more as the betting favorite here. Borralho stands 6-foot-1 with a 75-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Paris Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Paris Odds: Nassourdine Imavov-Caio Borralho Odds
Nassourdine Imavov: +110
Caio Borralho: -130
Over 4.5 rounds: -195
Under 4.5 rounds: +150
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Why Nassourdine Imavov Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Israel Adesanya – TKO (overhand right, R2)
- Last 5: 4-0-1
- Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 4 SUB
Nassourdine Imavov is coming in following the biggest win of his life over former champion Israel Adesanya. Imavov has been prepping for a moment like that and it must have been satisfying to see years of refined striking come together for a beautiful knockout. Imavov seems at the top of his game in terms of his striking and is currently walking around with the confidence of a true title contender.
Imavov will have a slight height advantage during this fight and it's helped him previously in being able to dictate the striking distance of his opponent. Imavov is a master at distance control and is very hard to hit when within his range. He's also very dangerous with his jab and deceptively has a ton of power when he's able to load up his shots.
The biggest question here will be whether Imavov can effectively defend the takedowns behind a 78% takedown defense and keep this fight on the feet. While he's only been submitted once in his career, Borralho is certainly an opponent he won't want to test from down there in a five round fight.
Why Caio Borralho Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Jared Cannonier – U DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 4 SUB
Caio Borralho looked sensational against Jared Cannonier, forgoing his usual tactic of implementing his jiu jitsu and instead decided to stand and strike with one of the division's most dangerous knockout artists. Borralho looked extremely fast and crisp on the feet, clear evidence of his evolution to a complete fighter. His training with the Fighting Nerds has certainly paid dividends and he has a serious chance to earn himself a title shot with a win here.
Borralho's new and improved striking will still be a step behind the lifelong experience of Borralho, but the threat of his takedowns should be enough to force Imavov's arm guard down a few times. Borralho is also very active with his kicking game, which could further threaten Imavov to take a more defensive approach.
All in all, the rankings don't mean much here and Borralho's skill set is apparent by the betting line. If he can manage to take Imavov down and threaten with his submissions on occasion, he should do enough to keep up in the striking and take the decision here.
Final Nassourdine Imavov-Caio Borralho Prediction & Pick
This is an extremely high-level skill matchup between these two fighters and the winner of this bout will be in-line to for an eventual title challenge. Imavov recently proved that he's the best pure striker in this division. However, Caio Borralho has turned himself into an all-around fighter and will threaten Imavov with the grappling even further.
Ultimately, the deciding factor in this fight will be whether Imavov can defend the takedown or not. While he's typically sound with his grappling defense, he's dealing with an extremely efficient finisher in Borralho who only needs a small opening to get the job done.
In the end, I think Caio Borralho just has more ways to win this fight, also having the grappling to fall back on if he needs it. I also see him controlling the grappling exchanges throughout five rounds, ultimately leading to a win by decision or a late submission.
Final Nassourdine Imavov-Caio Borralho Prediction & Pick: Caio Borralho (-130); OVER 4.5 Rounds (-195)
