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The Washington Wizards (0-0) open their season up with a visit to the Indiana Pacers (0-0). Tipoff is scheduled for 7 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Wizards-Pacers prediction and pick.
The Wizards enter the 2022-23 season as one of the more undervalued teams in the league. Washington had a disappointing season last year but that was largely thanks to All-Star guard Bradley Beal missing a majority of the season with an injury. Despite Beal playing in just 40 games, the Wizards managed to scrape together a 35-47 record. Now that isn't great by any means but it is certainly a step above what a tanking franchise would accomplish. Yet, Washington's over/under for this season was 35.5. By that logic, getting Beal back for a full season isn't worth a single game.
Indiana is not going to be good this year… consistently. The Pacers are clearly headed toward a top pick in next summer's highly touted draft and frankly, it makes sense. Indiana tried for a number of years to contend with the Paul George nucleus but never broke through. Then, they were still accidentally good thanks to Domantas Sabonis' emergence. But after trading Sabonis for 22-year-old point guard Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana made their direction clear: the tank for Victor Wembanyama was on. While the Indiana front office certainly plans on being bad this year, head coach Rick Carlisle and his budding superstar point guard may complicate that.
Here are the Wizards-Pacers NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Wizards-Pacers Odds
Washington Wizards: -1 (-108)
Indiana Pacers: +1 (-112)
Over: 226.5 (-110)
Under: 226.5 (-110)
Why The Wizards Could Cover The Spread
Now, perhaps the market is factoring in that Beal hasn't played a full season since the 2018-19 season. That is certainly fair as without Beal the Wizards are a completely different team. Beal is a dynamic, playmaking guard who can put the ball on the floor and create his own shot at will. However, he struggled from deep last year (30% from 3) and tied his career-worst in turnovers (3.4 TO per game). If the Wizards want to cover on opening night, they'll need the 2020-21 version of Beal that averaged over 30 points per game and shot nearly 50% from the field.
Regardless of if that version of Bradley Beal still exists or not, Washington has done a good job acquiring surrounding pieces to make this less of a one-man show. Perhaps no acquisition was bigger than that of Kristaps Porzingis. The Wizards acquired Porzingis from Dallas midseason last year and it was an instant success in a limited sample. The 7'3″ big man is incredibly only 27 years old and was a smart gamble by Washington's front office. Porzingis was a revelation upon arriving in Washington. In 17 games for the Wizards last year, Porzginis averaged 22 points and 9 rebounds while shooting 37% from 3.
Porzingis and Beal give Washington a solid, albeit fragile, core that should give them a pretty high floor from night to night. The Wizards are also banking on a step forward from any number of their recent first-round picks. Rui Hachimura (2019) flashed in the preseason, while Deni Avdija (2020) and Corey Kispert (2021) are still young enough that there's hope for improvement. This year's first-round pick Johnny Davis struggled in summer league but was profiled as a dynamic scorer coming out of Wisconsin. While the Wizards aren't in the cream of the crop in the East, they're at least trying to make the playoffs – more than we can say about the Pacers…
Why The Pacers Could Cover The Spread
Tyrese Haliburton is really, really good at basketball. The third-year guard out of Iowa State was the 12th overall pick in 2020 and spent his first 1.5 seasons with Sacramento before they inexplicably shipped him to Indiana. In Indiana, Haliburton will have the opportunity to be the lead guard coming into the season for the first time in his career. He showed what he could do as the main ball handler last year after being acquired by Indiana.
Haliburton averaged 17 points and 9 assists after the All-Star Break last year. He did so while shooting an efficient 50% from the field and 40% from 3. He has serious potential to join the coveted 50/40/90 club (50% field goal, 40% from 3, 90% free throw). Tyrese has all the makings of the NBA's next great floor general. The Pacers are clearly in full tank mode but with Haliburton running the show they're going to find losing harder than expected
Final Wizards-Pacers Prediction & Pick
While Indiana has the more exciting young talent, that talent is still, well, young. We've already established how Washington is being undervalued by the market to start the year. This seems to be the case on opening night. In a month I'd expect this line to be closer to 3 or 4 in favor of the Wizards. Jump all over the -1 and pray to the basketball gods that Porzingis and Beal stay healthy.
Final Wizards-Pacers Prediction & Pick: Washington Wizards -1 (-108)
