The UFC 326 Main Card is heating up as we bring you a betting prediction and pick for this upcoming bout in the Middleweight (185) Division. Fellow Brazilians will go to battle as Gregory Rodrigues takes on Brunno Ferreira in a brawl you won't want to miss! Check our UFC odds series for the Rodrigues-Ferreira prediction and pick.
Gregory Rodrigues (18-6) is currently 9-3 inside the UFC since 2021. He comes in following back-to-back wins and an impressive 5-1 record over his last six fights that includes a performance bonus and ‘fight of the night' bonus. Rodrigues comes in the betting favorite standing 6-foot-3 with a 75-inch reach.
Brunno Ferreira (15-2) has gone 6-2 since joining the UFC roster in 2023, most recently beating Marvin Vettori via unanimous decision for the biggest win of his tenure thus far. He's won three fights in a row and could earn a ranking if he's able to notch the upset win here. Ferreira stands 5-foot-10 with a 72-inch reach.
UFC 326 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 326 Odds: Gregory Rodrigues-Brunno Ferreira Odds
Gregory Rodrigues: -198
Brunno Ferreira: +164
Over 1.5 rounds: -110
Under 1.5 rounds: -120
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Why Gregory Rodrigues Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Roman Kopylov – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 10 KO/TKO, 4 SUB
Gregory Rodrigues comes into this fight following a complete performance over a dangerous striker in Roman Kopylov for his third-straight win. Rodrigues has always been known for his berserker striking style and one-punch knockout abilities, but he displayed tremendous patience and distance control against a seasoned kickboxer like Kopylov. Expect his skill set to appear even more polished this time around as he continues to evolve his striking.
Rodrigues uses every bit of his 6-foot-3 frame when striking as he tends to stand straight up in his stance. This allows him to slip shots while his opponents are reaching to catch his chin, returning with counter-punches behind his typical reach advantage. We've also seen how dangerous Rodrigues can be when swinging off his back foot, so don't expect Ferreira to be safe at any point when remotely close to Rodrigues' range.
Still, we've seen Rodrigues hurt in the past and he'll have to practice additional patience against a knockout artist like Ferreira. Ferreira is typically calm in his stance until exploding with heated combinations, similar to Rodrigues as he'll have first-hand experience against this particular style.
Why Brunno Ferreira Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Marvin Vettori – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 9 KO/TKO, 5 SUB
After notching two early knockouts in his UFC tenure to establish his name, Ferreira suffered a tough loss to Abus Magomedov at UFC 308. He's responded to the loss with three-straight victories, completely outclassing former title challenger Marvin Vettori at his own game during his last win. It's worth noting that Ferreira came into that fight over weight, however, and will have to dial things in during his training camp this time around.
Ferreira is slowly becoming more comfortable on the ground during the wrestling exchanges, but his true genius comes when throwing fight-ending strikes from the pocket. He's a fearless boxer and doesn't mind getting hit as well, so don't expect Ferreira to back down one bit from the known power of Rodrigues.
Brunno Ferreira has also shown increased patience since his last loss, so he should be approaching this first round with a much more methodical approach than previous bouts. Head movement and constant feints will be the key to his success as his opponent will be looking to plant his feet and unload his striking arsenal. If Ferreira can remain patient through the opening round, he should be able to pour things on by the third if his cardio allows for it.
Final Gregory Rodrigues-Brunno Ferreira Prediction & Pick
The betting line for this fight is right around where it should be as Gregory Rodrigues has the slight advantage in experience having faced similar looks in the past. The two Brazilians share a similar fighting style, so we should see both sides trying to end this fight early with their striking. Ferreira looks slightly more comfortable on the ground while Rodrigues just turned in one of his better striking performances of recent memory.
For this fight, however, I expect the reach and leg kicks of Gregory Rodrigues to be enough in deterring Brunno Ferreira from constantly moving forward. Rodrigues is never truly out of a fight and I don't expect Ferreira to catch him clean before Rodrigues can do fight-ending damage of his own.
For our final pick, we'll roll with the betting favorite Gregory Rodrigues as we could see these two warriors brawl through three rounds for an all-out war.
Final Gregory Rodrigues-Brunno Ferreira Prediction & Pick: Gregory Rodrigues (-198); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-110)
