Noche UFC: Diego Lopes versus Jean Silva continues on the main card with a fight between Rafa Garcia and Jared Gordon in the lightweight division at Noche UFC on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Garcia-Gordon prediction and pick.
Rafa Garcia (17-4) last fought in March, earning a unanimous decision win over Vinc Pichel. Previously, Garcia was stopped by Grant Dawson via TKO last October, but responded with tough wrestling and balanced striking in his recent outings as he prepares for Jared Gordon at Noche UFC.
Jared Gordon (21-7, 1 NC) enters Noche UFC off a TKO win over Thiago Moises in May, bouncing back from a close split-decision loss to Nasrat Haqparast last summer. “Flash” brings a pressure-forward, high-volume style and will look to build on his momentum against Garcia this weekend.
Here are the Noche UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
Noche UFC odds: Rafa Garcia-Jared Gordon odds
Rafa Garcia: +205
Jared Gordon: -250
Over 2.5 rounds: -330
Under 2.5 rounds: +240
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Why Rafa Garcia will win
- Last Fight: (W) Vinc Pichel – DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 9 (1 KO/TKO/8 SUB)
Rafa Garcia’s blueprint for beating Jared Gordon at Noche UFC centers on his physicality, takedown game, and ever-improving striking. Garcia averages over three takedowns per 15 minutes, which allows him to bully opponents and control rounds by stifling their offense with a smothering top game.
On the feet, Garcia has added sharper boxing combinations to his toolkit, forcing foes to respect his hands and opening up even more opportunities for level changes. He’s also shown notable cardio improvements, pushing a hard pace that can match or even exceed Gordon’s signature work rate over three rounds.
If Garcia avoids being drawn into pure boxing exchanges and instead applies constant pressure, his grappling should force Gordon into scrambles and uncomfortable positions. With strong hips and effective clinch work, Garcia can sap Gordon’s energy and avoid extended periods on bottom, where Gordon’s ground-and-pound is most dangerous.
Expect Garcia to use wrestling to dictate where the fight takes place, stay defensively responsible on the feet, and win crucial exchanges in the clinch. With the ability to outmuscle Gordon in pivotal moments, Garcia is well equipped to earn a gritty decision win or even threaten with a late submission.
Why Jared Gordon will win
- Last Fight: (W) Thiago Moises – KO/TKO R1
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 10 (8 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Jared Gordon’s path to victory over Rafa Garcia at Noche UFC centers around his relentless pace, durability, and veteran savvy. Gordon is known for pushing a high striking and grappling output over three rounds, consistently landing over five significant strikes per minute and mixing in timely takedowns to keep foes guessing.
His ability to create chaos in the clinch and impose his will on opponents often forces less-experienced fighters like Garcia into prolonged defensive sequences. Gordon thrives in gritty, grind-it-out battles and has shown the resilience to weather adversity, making him extremely difficult to put away—even against heavy hitters.
On the feet, Gordon’s crisp boxing and constant pressure can overwhelm Garcia, especially if he uses lateral movement to avoid Garcia’s power shots and counters effectively. If the fight hits the mat, Gordon’s top control and ground-and-pound further tilt the fight in his favor by banking control time and sapping Garcia’s cardio for later rounds.
By combining strong fundamentals with relentless activity, Gordon can set the pace and dictate the fight’s terms. Expect him to grind Garcia down with volume, clinch work, and physicality, earning a clear decision on the judges’ scorecards or forcing a late stoppage.
Final Rafa Garcia-Jared Gordon prediction & pick
Jared Gordon is well-positioned to get his hand raised against Rafa Garcia at Noche UFC, leveraging a clear edge in striking volume and experience. Gordon lands 5.67 significant strikes per minute at 55% accuracy, keeping a pace that regularly overwhelms less active opponents and allows him to build early leads on the scorecards.
While Garcia is a persistent wrestler with a solid takedown game, Gordon’s strong defensive fundamentals and ability to scramble minimize long spells on his back. Gordon’s 62% takedown defense and tactical footwork help him keep the fight standing, where his high output and combinations tend to control exchanges and sap Garcia’s energy over time.
In the clinch, Gordon’s ability to stay busy—mixing short elbows, body shots, and knees—is a difference-maker against Garcia’s single-shot attempts and clinch entries. This tempo helps Gordon gain favor with judges in tightly contested rounds, especially as Garcia’s accuracy dips when pressured.
If Gordon maintains defensive focus and avoids prolonged grappling exchanges, he can outland Garcia in all three rounds. Expect Gordon to edge ahead with pace, activity, and superior boxing, earning a competitive but clear unanimous decision at Noche UFC.
Final Rafa Garcia-Jared Gordon Prediction & Pick: Jared Gordon (-250), Over 2.5 Rounds (-330)
