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We're back with another betting prediction and pick for UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 as we conclude the Early Prelims portion with this bout in the Lightweight Division. China's Rongzhu will take on Syndicate MMA's own Kody Steele in an exciting bout early into the night. Check the UFC odds series for our Rongzhu-Steele prediction and pick.
Rongzhu (25-6) comes into this fight with a 1-3 UFC record since 2021. He most recently dropped his last bout to Chris Padilla via doctor's stoppage after winning three-straight fights in the Road to the UFC tournament. He'll look to impress as the betting underdog against a debuting fighter. Rongzhu stands 5-foot-9 with a 71-inch reach.
Kody Steele (7-0) will be making his debut following a successful TKO effort in his Dana White's Contender Series audition. He won the fight and the subsequent contract with an unlikely body shot, making him a promising undefeated prospect listed as the betting favorite for his debut fight. Steele stands 5-foot-9 with a 71-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 312 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 312 Odds: Rongzhu-Kody Steele Odds
Rongzhu: +180
Kody Steele: -218
Over 2.5 rounds: +120
Under 2.5 rounds: -154
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Why Rongzhu Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Chris Padilla – TKO (doctor stoppage, R2)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 14 KO/TKO, 7 SUB
Rongzhu was on the wrong side of a TKO loss in his return to the UFC following an elbow to his eye that eventually swelled to close his eye. He was hot coming in off the Road to the UFC tournament with three-straight victories and he made his bout against Chris Padilla a close one for as long as it lasted. He's a very aggressive striker and doesn't shy away from trading blows during chaotic exchanges, so expect him to pressure Steele early as he controls the center and asserts position.
Rongzhu is very skilled in all areas of the fight, but his decision-making under the bright lights has been questionable at times. He's also had trouble on the scales, which certainly doesn't make for a good relationship with the UFC and his cardio during more grueling fights. He should have the edge in this fight if he's able to find top position on the ground, so don't be surprised if he shoots for a takedown and tries to gain ground on control time as well.
Why Kody Steele Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Chasen Blair – TKO (body shot, R2)
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
While his opponent may have more submission wins on his record, Kody Steele has been a top-level jiu jitsu competitor long before entering the world of MMA. He's faced some of the biggest names in submission grappling and will certainly be looking to exploit Rongzhu's defense knowing four of his six losses have come by way of submission. Steele will have to deal with a different stylistic look in a striker like Rongzhu, so fully expect him to chase submissions whenever he sees an opportunity to do so.
In making his UFC debut, there's a solid chance we see Kody Steele stand and strike with his opponent to display some evolution in his fight game. He's been able to rely on pure talent and athleticism in his striking through the regional level, but you'd have to imagine it was a big part of his camp heading into this one. Still having that BJJ in his back pocket is what will make Steele all the more dangerous in this fight.
Final Rongzhu-Kody Steele Prediction & Pick
This will certainly be an exciting bout as both fighters have a flair for finding the finish. Rongzhu will certainly have the striking advantage and knowing his style of fighting, we can expect him to crowd Steele early and get right in his face with boxing combinations. I expect we'll see Steele test some of his striking as he looks to evolve as a mixed martial artist with each passing fight.
The great equalizer here, however, will be the submission grappling from Kody Steele. He's been on the jiu jitsu scene for quite some time and Rongzhu has been known to fall to submission, more than any other method in his career. While Steele will look to test his skills on the feet, the clearest path to victory will be catching his opponent off-guard and working towards a submission. He also has the cardio to go all three rounds as Rongzhu's cardio has been a question at times.
For our final prediction, let's roll with Kody Steele to get the victory as he finds a submission finish to end this one early.
Final Rongzhu-Kody Steele Prediction & Pick: Kody Steele (-218)
