We're back once again with a betting prediction and pick for the NBA Cup tournament as we head to the Western Conference for this next matchup. The No. 3 San Antonio Spurs (16-7) will take on the No. 2 Los Angeles Lakers (17-6), the Lakers leading the season series 1-0. Check our NBA Cup odds series for the Spurs-Lakers prediction and pick.
The San Antonio Spurs ended NBA Cup Group play with a 3-1 record, most recently beating the New Orleans Pelicans 135-132. They've gone 7-3 over their last 10 games and lost to the Lakers by a close margin in their first meeting, hoping to win this game when it matters most.
The Los Angeles Lakers went a perfect 4-0 through NBA Cup Group play, most recently beating Philadelphia 112-108. With an 8-2 record over their last 10 games, the Lakers will hope to continue their momentum at home and make this NBA Cup interesting for the Oklahoma City Thunder in the next round.
NBA Odds courtesy of DraftKings
Spurs vs. Lakers NBA Cup Odds
San Antonio Spurs: +7.5 (-115)
Los Angeles Lakers: -7.5 (-105)
Over: 240.5 (-112)
Under: 240.5 (-108)
Spurs vs. Lakers Key Injuries
San Antonio: Carter Bryant, Questionable (illness) / Jordan McLaughlin, Questionable (hamstring) / Victor Wembanyama, OUT (calf)
Los Angeles: Maxi Kleber, Questionable (back)
Spurs vs. Lakers Betting Trends
- The Los Angeles Lakers are 7-3 at home. The San Antonio Spurs are 7-5 on the road.
- The Lakers are 15-8 ATS overall, 6-4 ATS at home. The Spurs are 12-11 ATS overall, 4-8 ATS on the road.
- The Lakers have gone 10-2 as betting favorites. The Spurs are 5-3 as underdogs.
- The total has gone OVER in all 10 of the Lakers' home games.
- The total has gone OVER in five of San Antonio's last six games.
- The Lakers are 8-2 outright, 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games against the Spurs.
Keys to Spurs vs. Lakers Matchup
Lakers' Luka Doncic scored a cool 35 points his last time out against this San Antonio team with Victor Wembanyama leading the charge for the Spurs with 19 points. Despite his absence during this NBA Cup Quarterfinal, the Spurs have managed an 8-3 record without Wemby on the floor this season. Having lost their last game by only two points, the Spurs certainly have a chance to cover this moderate spread on the road.
It will still be tough to overcome the Lakers given how well Austin Reaves has been playing lately, establishing himself as the true No. 2 option on this team behind Luka Doncic. Over the last 10 games, Reaves is averaging 28.2 PPG, 5.9 RPG, and 5.2 APG while the Lakers have taken eight of their last 10. With Luka Doncic leading the league at 35.0 PPG, this offense immediately becomes one of the hardest to out-pace, especially on their home floor.
Thanks to this, the overs have hit in each Lakers' home game this season and despite the elevated defense we're bound to see with the NBA Cup on the line, the Lakers are still bound to score points with Doncic and Reaves running the show. Spurs' De'Aaron Fox is averaging 1.5 steals per game over his last 10, so expect him to be disruptive in trying to stop the production of the Lakers' backcourt.
The Spurs will have to rely on players like Devin Vassell and rookie Dylan Harper for a scoring boosts. Harper is averaging 13.5 PPG in an extended role on both ends of the floor, so it'll be interesting to see how he's paired with Stephon Castle in the defensive schemes. If the Spurs' young core can have an energetic start to this game, they should be able to hang with the Lakers in the first half.
Spurs vs. Lakers Prediction and Pick
With the first meeting between these two teams being decided by just a basket, we should be in for another close game in this one. However, the absence of Victor Wembanyama could be crucial in the interior matchup against the Lakers' Jaxson Hayes and Deandre Ayton. I expect those two players to be the difference for the Lakers, along with the size and athleticism LeBron James provides in the post areas.
The Lakers are the bigger lineup and if they struggle in the paint, Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves are bound to bail them out with their shooting from the floor. The guards of San Antonio, however, are some of the best matchups available for guarding Reaves and Doncic, so don't be surprised if they're able to create some turnovers throughout this one.
Still, I expect the Los Angeles Lakers to cover this spread at home and we'll stick with the total over to coincide with LA's home trends.
Final Spurs-Lakers NBA Cup Prediction & Pick: Los Angeles Lakers -7.5 (-105); OVER 240.5 (-112)
