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The stage is set for UFC Vegas 109: Dolidze vs. Hernandez as we bring you a prediction and pick for the Co-Main Event taking place in the Bantamweight (135) Division. Perth, Australia's Steve Erceg will take on Jamaica's Ode Osbourne in what should be an electric battle. Check the UFC odds for our Erceg-Osbourne prediction and pick.
Steve Erceg (12-4) has gone 3-3 inside the UFC since 2013 as one of the top prospects in the division. Following a 3-0 start and a meteoric rise through the division, Erceg has dropped his last three fights against the current champ and two title challengers. He'll look to get back on track as the heavy favorite here. Erceg stands 5-foot-8 with a 68-inch reach.
Ode Osbourne (13-8) has gone 5-6 since joining the UFC in 2020. Following a promising start, Osbourne dropped three consecutive bouts and was submitted twice in that stretch. Bouncing back with a performance bonus TKO is his last fight, he'll look for back-t0-back wins for the first time since 2022. Osbourne stands 5-foot-7 with a 73-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 109 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 109 Odds: Steve Erceg-Ode Osbourne Odds
Steve Erceg: -575
Ode Osbourne: +425
Over 1.5 rounds: -166
Under 1.5 rounds: +130
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Why Steve Erceg Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Brandon Moreno – U DEC
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 2 KO/TKO, 6 SUB
After challenging Alexandre Pantoja for the Bantamweight title just three fights into his UFC stint, Steve Erceg hasn't been able to properly bounce back after facing Kai Kara-France and former champ Brandon Moreno. Erceg would have liked to see more looks at lesser competition, but he's been primed for this moment to face the best of the division. His betting odds are indicative of this and we should see a much better display from him now that he has the advantage.
Erceg is extremely well-rounded as a martial artist and doesn't take huge risks during the fight, minimizing on the mistakes he'll make as a result. He's extremely skilled and athletic on the ground with six career submissions, a glaring advantage if you were to consider Osbourne's four losses by submission.
Erceg will also have the advantage on the feet, but he'll have to keep his defense tight given Osbourne's wild striking style. His output will have to remain consistent, but it should be easy given his track record of finishing previous opponents in the first round. Look for Erceg to be extremely focused from the opening horn of this fight.
Why Ode Osbourne Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Luis Gurule – TKO (left hook, R2)
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 5 SUB
Ode Osbourne was on a rough skid with three-straight losses, all of which came with Osbourne billed as the betting underdog. He'll be the underdog once again in arguably his toughest test, but his most recent finish by TKO was the best version we've seen of him in a while. With wholesale changes coming to his camp and preparation, we could see a completely improved version of Osbourne in the biggest spot of his career.
Ode Osbourne is extremely unorthodox with his striking and throws everything with blistering speed. He's capable of throwing kicks to all levels of the body faster than his opponents can react, so being first in the exchanges is key for Osbourne being successful. He'll be facing another speed demon in Erceg, but Osbourne is confident his reach advantage can help him in landing over the top of Erceg's attempts.
Ode Osbourne will have his best chance at winning this fight by hitting Erceg with a combination when he least expects it. Erceg typically recovers quickly when hurt, so it'll take a rapid flurry of punches and a finishing effort to really get him out of there. Osbourne's gas tank has been questionable at times, but we've seen him make stern improvements in his last few showings.
Final Steve Erceg-Ode Osbourne Prediction & Pick
This will be a great fight stylistically given both fighters' ability to make adjustments in their striking. Both men are very talented in terms of their ability to throw varied offense, but we have to give the slight technical advantage to Steve Erceg. In terms of grappling, the advantage also goes to Erceg thanks to his submission capabilities and Osbourne's four losses by submission.
I think we should see a close fight during the opening rounds, but ultimately Steve Erceg will pull away thanks to his experience and ability on the ground. I expect Erceg to take over at the mid-point of this fight, eventually notching a submission win and breaking his losing streak.
Final Steve Erceg-Ode Osbourne Prediction & Pick: Steve Erceg (-475); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-166)
