The NBA Cup is back in action as we're set to bring you betting predictions and picks for the Western Conference side of the bracket. The No. 4 Phoenix Suns (14-10) will take on the No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder (23-1), OKC leading the season series 1-0. Check our NBA Cup odds series for the Suns-Thunder prediction and pick.
The Phoenix Suns advanced with a 3-1 record and point differential over the Memphis Grizzlies, set to take on the Thunder following their previous 123-119 loss to them. They're 2-3 over their last five, but most recent beat the Timberwolves 108-105 and hope to build momentum when it matters.
The Oklahoma City Thunder went 4-0 in cup group play, continuing their one-loss streak for one of the best starts in NBA history. They most recently beat the Utah Jazz 131-101 for their third-straight win by double-digits, working with a familiar betting spread in this one.
NBA Odds courtesy of DraftKings
Suns vs. Thunder Odds (note subheading 2 bolded)
Phoenix Suns: +14.5 (-112)
Oklahoma City Thunder: -14.5 (-108)
Over: 226.5 (-105)
Under: 226.5 (-115)
Suns vs. Thunder Key Injuries
Phoenix: Devin Booker, Questionable (groin) / Jalen Green, OUT (hamstring) / Isaiah Livers, OUT (hip)
Oklahoma City: Isaiah Hartenstein, OUT (calf) / Isaiah Joe, OUT (knee)
Suns vs. Thunder Betting Trends
- The Oklahoma City Thunder are 11-0 at home. The Phoenix Suns are 6-6 on the road.
- The Thunder are 13-11 ATS overall, 6-5 ATS at home. The Suns are 16-8 ATS overall, 7-5 ATS on the road.
- The Thunder are 23-1 as betting favorites. The Suns are 6-9 as underdogs.
- The Suns are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games.
- The Thunder are 8-2 outright, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against the Suns.
- The total has gone OVER in four of the Thunder's last five games.
Keys to Suns vs. Thunder Matchup
The Phoenix Suns actually put together a strong effort the first time these two teams met, only losing by four points thanks to 24 points from Collin Gillespie on 6-11 shooting from three. Center Mark Williams added 14 rebounds in the effort as well and the Suns would greatly benefit from both players having another good performance with Devin Booker potentially missing this game. They fared well without him against the Timberwolves, Gillespie and Williams leading the charge with 19 and 22, respectively.
The story with the Thunder all season hasn't been whether they'll win or not, but rather how many points they'll win by. They're seemingly unstoppable with reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading the way for arguably the deepest roster in all of the NBA. With Jalen Williams returning to action, they've gone from beating teams handily to blowing them out every other appearance. They're slightly above average in terms of covering the spread, but the Phoenix Suns have done a solid job as underdogs in their own right.
The key for Phoenix will be getting the ball inside to Mark Williams so he can force opportunities at the free-throw line. The Suns will only benefit from their leading scorer Devin Booker's availability for this game, but it'll take a complete team effort if they want this win over OKC.
Not only are the OKC Thunder second in PPG (123.0), but they sport the most efficient defense in the NBA, getting things done on both ends of the floor. Even with Isaiah Hartenstein out, who leads their rebounding efforts, Chet Holmgren has done a great job improving his own rebounding, averaging a career-high thus far at 8.1 RPG. He also has seven total blocks over his last four games, so he'll continue being their dominant presence inside the paint against the Suns' Williams in this one.
Suns vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick
The first meeting between these two teams was a close one and as Oklahoma City continues their run of dominance to start this season, their betting spreads will continue to grow larger with each passing game. I don't see a scenario where the Phoenix Suns upset the Thunder in this one, especially if Devin Booker is unable to play, but they stand a solid chance to cover the betting spread as they've been able to do 15 times over their last 20 games.
For our final prediction, we're going to roll with the Oklahoma City Thunder to win this game, but the Phoenix Suns should be able to remain competitive throughout and cover this double-digit spread. Devin Booker's availability will determine the outcome as the Thunder should cover without him in the game, so we'll roll with the Suns assuming he plays. Still, the Thunder are able to pull away from teams thanks to their depth on the bench, so don't be surprised if this turns into a blowout either.
Final Suns-Thunder NBA Cup Prediction & Pick: Phoenix Suns +14.5 (-108); OVER 226.5 (-105)
