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We're back with another betting prediction and pick for UFC 312 as we turn our attention towards this next matchup in the Lightweight (155) Division. Australia's own Tom Nolan will take on Russia's Viacheslav Borshchev in an exciting meeting of two dangerous strikers. Check the UFC odds series for our Nolan-Borshchev prediction and pick.
Tom Nolan (8-1) has gone 2-1 since debuting in the UFC during 2024. He lost his debut fight to Nikolas Motta, but has since notched back-to-back wins Victor Martinez and Alex Reyes. He'll look to build upon this winning streak as he takes on one of the more exciting fighters in the division. Nolan stands 6-foot-3 with a 73-inch reach.
Viacheslav Borshchev (8-4-1) has gone 3-3-1 under the UFC since 2022. Following his recent loss to Chase Hooper, Borshchev bounced back with a split decision victory over James Llontop back in August 2024. He'll come into this fight as the slightest betting favorite looking for a statement win. Borshchev stands 5-foot-11 with a 69-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 312 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 312 Odds: Tom Nolan-Viacheslav Borshchev Odds
Tom Nolan: +102
Viacheslav Borshchev: -122
Over 1.5 rounds: -120
Under 1.5 rounds: -110
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Why Tom Nolan Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Alex Reyes – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 5 KO/TKO
Tom Nolan comes into this fight after going to a decision for the first time in his UFC tenure. His last six consecutive fights ending inside of the distance, five of which were finished inside of the first round. He certainly showed resolve in the win and his cardio held up well given the circumstances. He'll face another willing striker in Borshchev during this one, but Nolan will work with a sizable height and reach advantage. His long limbs and frame will allow him to dictate the striking range on his terms during this fight.
For how slender his frame is, Tom Nolan certainly packs a big punch and uses leverage to his advantage when fighting from the clinch. He's also very active in moving his head and avoiding damage from opponents, so fully expect him to stand in front of Borshchev and test his chin when eating shots. Nolan should make use of his low leg kicks in setting up kicks to the head as Borshchev has had trouble checking them in the past.
Why Viacheslav Borshchev Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) James Llontop – S DEC
- Last 5: 2-2-1
- Finishes: 6 KO/TKO
Viacheslav Borshchev finally had a judges' decision go his way, even if it was the slimmest of margins and could have easily gone to James Llontop as well. Borshchev was able to thrive during the chaotic fight and even had an opportunity to finish the bout on a number of occasions. He welcomes a chaotic fire fight and is able to remain composed while his opponent is throwing back at him. While he tends to sustain damage throughout each of his fights, he's shown a very solid chin and won't be an easy out for Nolan by any means.
Viacheslav Borshchev does his best work when boxing in a tight pocket, but he may have some issues closing the distance and sizing down his much longer opponent. This means Borshchev will have to get creative when entering into Nolan's range while still maintaining his own defense. Borshchev also absorbs less strikes than Nolan and lands at a 53% clip, so expect him to definitely be dealing out some damage during this one.
Final Tom Nolan-Viacheslav Borshchev Prediction & Pick
Tom Nolan and Viacheslav Borshchev make for an extremely fun fight as both men are willing to stand in a tight pocket and trade shots. Neither fighter is very enthusiastic about going to the ground, so we should be treated to a back-and-forth striking bout during this one.
Tom Nolan certainly has a noticeable advantage with his length, but it's worth noting that his debut loss came against a much short fighter in Nikolas Motta. If Borshchev is able to close the distance and gain Nolan's respect with his striking entries, he should be able to crack him enough to cause him to retreat. Still, Nolan will be very dangerous with his straight shots and knees up the middle, so don't be surprised if he works to initiate the clinch and land easy shots from in close.
While this tale of the tape may be slightly favored towards Tom Nolan, I really like how willing Viacheslav Borshchev is to engage opponents in his type of brawl. While I expect this fight to be very even in nature, it should be Borshchev who's landing the more effective and damaging strikes. Let's roll with the short favorite to get the win here.
Final Tom Nolan-Viacheslav Borshchev Prediction & Pick: Viacheslav Borshchev (-122); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-120)
