UFC 321: Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane continues on the prelims with a fight between Valter Walker and Louie Sutherland in the heavyweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Walker-Sutherland prediction and pick.
Valter Walker (14-1) enters UFC 321 riding a three-fight first-round submission streak that has made him one of the heavyweight division’s fastest-rising contenders. Confident and surging after back-to-back statement wins, he looks to extend his momentum as he comes into his fight this weekend against Louie Sutherland.
Louie Sutherland (10-3) enters UFC 321 on a four-fight winning streak fueled by knockout power and aggression. The British striker brings confidence and momentum as he comes into his fight this weekend against Valter Walker.
Here are the UFC 321 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 321 odds: Valter Walker-Louie Sutherland odds
Valter Walker: -395
Louie Sutherland: +310
Over 1.5 rounds: -154
Under 1.5 rounds: +120
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Why Valter Walker will win
- Last Fight: (W) Kennedy Nzechukwu – SUB R1
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 10 (6 KO/TKO/4 SUB)
Valter Walker possesses the precise mix of grappling ingenuity and athleticism to overwhelm Louie Sutherland at UFC 321. With a 14-1 record and three consecutive first-round heel-hook victories in the UFC, Walker’s submission arsenal is among the most unique and dangerous in the heavyweight division.
While Sutherland brings knockout power, he’s never faced a grappler as dynamic as Walker. The Brazilian disguises takedowns well behind feints and counters, often forcing scrambles that create leg-lock openings before opponents can establish rhythm. This stylistic versatility favors Walker in both speed and adaptability.
Walker’s composure in chaotic moments also gives him a decisive edge. Even when facing heavy pressure, he thrives in transitions—rolling for submissions or reversing positions instead of absorbing damage. Against a pressure-based striker like Sutherland, that awareness could make the difference.
If Sutherland presses forward recklessly, he risks walking straight into Walker’s traps on the mat. Expect Walker to use early defensive movement before timing level changes and dragging the fight into grappling exchanges. From there, his fluid control and finishing instinct should secure another early stoppage, marking a fourth straight submission win and solidifying his rise as a legitimate heavyweight contender.
Why Louie Sutherland will win
- Last Fight: (W) Luke Newland – KO/TKO R1
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 8 (8 KO/TKO)
Louie Sutherland’s route to victory over Valter Walker at UFC 321 depends on keeping the fight standing and turning it into a striking battle. The English heavyweight’s power, aggressiveness, and combinations from mid-range make him a severe threat to Walker’s limited striking defense.
Walker’s last three wins came via heel hook, but that submission focus carries major risks against a striker with knockout instincts. Attempting low entries for leg locks exposes Walker’s head and body to clean counter shots, and Sutherland has the timing and composure to exploit those openings.
If Sutherland maintains smart pressure and avoids overcommitting, his boxing fundamentals can overwhelm Walker’s defensive gaps. Walker absorbs more strikes than he lands, which gives Sutherland a clear statistical edge if he keeps the fight upright and denies transitions to the mat.
Sutherland’s recent fights have shown improved patience and cardio, suggesting he can sustain high output without fading. Expect him to use feints to bait Walker into ill-timed shots, punish him with uppercuts and hooks, and close the show once Walker slows down. With superior striking volume and damage potential, Sutherland has a real chance to score a statement knockout victory this Saturday at UFC 321.
Final Valter Walker-Louie Sutherland prediction & pick
Valter Walker enters UFC 321 as a -395 favorite over Louie Sutherland, and it’s easy to see why. Walker’s 14-1 record includes an incredible trio of first-round heel-hook submissions, proving he’s one of the few heavyweights capable of ending fights on the ground in spectacular fashion.
His grappling creativity separates him from most in the division. While Sutherland brings strong punching power, Walker’s ability to exploit transitions gives him multiple paths to victory. He’s shown superb composure under fire, quickly turning defensive scrambles into finishing opportunities with rare technical precision.
Sutherland’s best chance lies in keeping it standing, but Walker’s willingness to mix levels and chain takedowns disrupts pacing. Expect Walker to probe early with kicks to draw reactions before timing level changes and forcing Sutherland into grappling exchanges he cannot comfortably sustain.
In heavyweight fights, a submission threat as diverse as Walker’s is a rarity. His momentum, confidence, and experience against higher-tier competition make him the more complete fighter entering UFC 321. Barring an early knockout from Sutherland, Walker’s skill set should produce another dominant finish, securing a first or second-round submission victory this Saturday in Abu Dhabi.
Final Valter Walker-Louie Sutherland Prediction & Pick: Valter Walker (-395), Under 1.5 Rounds (+120)
