The Milwaukee Bucks have quickly asserted themselves as the team to beat in the NBA since the All-Star break, and are rolling towards the playoffs. With a 51-20 record, the Bucks are in control of the Eastern Conference currently, sporting a 2.5 game lead over the Boston Celtics, who sit in second place. Assuming they can keep their foot on the gas pedal, the Bucks are in great position to remain the top seed in the East entering the playoffs.
Milwaukee has really been on a tear since the calendar flipped to 2023, and the scary thing is that they may not have hit their peak yet. They have rarely been fully healthy this season, and while their pace has slowed a bit recently after suffering losses in winnable games against the Golden State Warriors and Indiana Pacers, they have proven that they are the team to beat heading into the playoffs.
In a tightly packed Eastern Conference, having the top seed could be the difference between going on a Finals run or flaming out earlier than expected. There is a dream scenario for the Bucks as they approach the playoffs that they actually currently find themselves in, so let's look at that scenario and see what they need to do to ensure that they can hold onto the great spot they currently find themselves in.
Bucks dream seeding scenario and playoff matchups
For much of the season, the Bucks were playing second-fiddle to the red hot Celtics in the East, and the fear was that the same thing that happened last season was going to occur in the 2023 NBA Playoffs. There wasn't much to separate the two sides in their seven-game playoff series last season, but in a pivotal Game 7, the Celtics home-court advantage ended up helping them send Milwaukee packing.
But as the one-seed now, the Bucks seem intent on not letting history repeat itself. As the Celtics crumble, the Bucks have only gotten hotter, and they have the inside track to clinch the top seed in the East as a result. If they manage to accomplish that, they would immediately clinch their dream playoff scenario in the process.
The top seed in the East holds a lot of power this season for a couple of different reasons. For starters, if the Bucks hold onto the top seed, they would play the lowest seed in the East in the first-round. Right now, that would likely be either the Atlanta Hawks, Toronto Raptors, or Chicago Bulls, which are all teams the Bucks could easily beat. Avoiding the Miami Heat, who are currently the seven seed, would be a very big win.
Not only would the Bucks avoid playing a potentially dangerous Heat team, they would also put themselves in line for a more favorable second-round matchup. The Bucks, Celtics, and Philadelphia 76ers are all going to be looking to avoid playing each other in the playoffs for as long as possible, and right now, the Bucks wouldn't face either of these teams until the Eastern Conference Finals at the earliest.
The easiest path for the Bucks to at least make the Finals involves them landing the one seed in the East, and the difference between being the one seed and two seed is rather large right now. If the season ended today, the Celtics would earn the two seed, which would set them up for a potential first-round matchup with the seven seeded Heat, and then a second-round matchup with the Sixers. That's a much more difficult path to the ECF than the Bucks would have as the top seed.
Now, the Bucks aren't locked into the top seed, but with 11 games left to play, their 2.5 game lead over the C's feels pretty safe. Their biggest potential problem arises if Boston manages to win their final head-to-head meeting this season, which would give the Celtics the tiebreaker between the two teams. Not only that, but if Boston wins, they would automatically gain a game on Milwaukee in the standings too.
Milwauke has a favorable schedule the rest of the way out, but playing Boston on the second night of a back-to-back, only to follow that up with a game against Philadelphia three days later, is a pretty daunting stretch. That's why even as the Celtics have endured their struggles, the Bucks aren't in the clear yet. If they can get over this last hurdle, they will be in a very good spot.
The Bucks are currently in the pole position to clinch their dream playoff scenario, but the job isn't finished yet. If they can land the one seed in the East, they will have a very good chance at emerging from the field to make it all the way to the NBA Finals. As a result, these next few games are extremely important for Milwaukee, and it will be worth seeing if they can handle their business over the remainder of the regular season.
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