The Chicago Cubs are looking to keep improving as they have many positive hopes heading into the 2024 season. We're here to share our MLB odds series, make a Cubs over-under regular-season win total prediction for the 2024 season.
The Cubs had a productive 2023 campaign as they finished 83-79 and were third in the National League Central. Now, Craig Counsel comes over from the Milwaukee Brewers with the hope of turning this team around. The Cubs had some highlights to their 2023 season that they look to build upon.
Christopher Morel finished the season with a batting average of .247 with 26 home runs, 70 RBIs, and 62 runs. Meanwhile, Dansby Swanson had a batting average of .244 with 22 home runs, 80 RBIs, and 81 runs. Patrick Wisdom was solid in a platoon role, hitting .205 while slugging 24 home runs, 46 RBIs, and 43 runs in 268 at-bats.
But the pitching staff was where the success lay. Justin Steele was a Cy Young contender after going 16-5 with a 3.06 ERA through 30 starts. Now, he looks to take the next step in his development. Kyle Hendricks remained efficient after going 6-8 with a 3.74 ERA over 24 starts.
The Cubs made no significant additions. However, they lost Marcus Stroman. But they resigned Cody Bellinger to a massive deal, keeping him in Chicago for the next few years.
Here are the Win Total MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Cubs 2024 Win Total Odds
Over 83.5 Wins: -115
Under 83.5 Wins: -105
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Why Cubs Will Win 83.5 Games
Steele is elite. Ultimately, everything went right for him. Steele broke through the floodgates last season because of a slider and sinker combo that kept hitters off balance. If he can continue to maintain that deceptive combo, he will once again have a great season. Hendricks is still great. Overall, he is a groundball pitcher that does not make mistakes. But the Cubs also may have another good starter in the mix. Last season, Javier Assad went 5-3 with a 3.05 ERA through 10 starts and 32 games overall. It is worth noting that he produced a 3.02 ERA over his 10 starts. Hence, his two-seamer was enough to field numerous ground balls.
The offense has some weapons that can make things happen. First, there is Nico Hoerner. When he is on base, it is not difficult to imagine him stealing a base. Hoerner did that 43 times last season. Additionally, he finished with a batting average of .283 with nine home runs, 68 RBIs, and 98 runs. Chicago likes what it has in Morel. Last season, he evolved and had a 92.1 MPH exit velocity with his hits. Morel also clobbered at a 50-percent hard-hit rate. The only downside to Wisdom is his low batting average. Yet, he is always a threat to hit a home run.
The Cubs also will have Bellinger back after there was some questions to whether he would return. Last season, he finished with a batting average of .307 with 26 home runs, 97 RBIs, and 95 runs while also finishing with an on-base percentage of .356. Seiya Suzuki was good, as he finished with a batting average of .285 with 20 home runs, 74 RBIs, and 75 runs.
The Cubs will cover the spread if they can develop an elite starting rotation. Then, they need Bellinger to replicate what he did last season.
Why Cubs Won't Win 83.5 Games
It would also be easy to forget that there was a reason the Los Angeles Dodgers allowed Bellinger to sign with the Cubs a year ago. Remember, he had three consecutive seasons where he hit under .240. He also had less than 20 home runs in each of those three seasons, and his on-base percentage was dismal. Did he do amazing last year simply because it was a contract year? That is one thing to consider, as he now has a new contract.
Swanson must learn how to hit off-speed pitches. Sadly, that was his kryptonite last season. The Cubs have other hitters in their lineup that could stand to improve. Ultimately, it may be a long season with some stretches of stagnant hitting.
The bullpen has plenty of questions. Is Adbert Alzolay truly ready to be the closer? Sure, he has a 95 MPH fastball, but can he get hitters out with it? Julian Merryweather is another reliever with a high-90s fastball. Significantly, it achieved a 32.3 percent strikeout rate last season. But there are questions as to whether it will work out again. Drew Smyly struggled as a starter but excelled as a reliever with a 2.51 ERA. Do the Cubs have enough arms in the bullpen to keep this thing afloat?
The Cubs will not win 84 games because there are consistency questions in their lineup. Likewise, their bullpen is untested.
Final Cubs Over/Under Win Total Prediction
The landscape of the NL Central is changing. The Cincinnati Reds are expected to be good. The St. Louis Cardinals are expected to bounce back. Also, you cannot forget about the Milwaukee Brewers. Yet, despite all this, the Cubs have a squad that can compete with all three of them. The Cubs also have a schedule that includes series matchups against the Los Angeles Angels, Oakland Athletics, and Detroit Tigers, all at home. You also cannot forget about the annual showdown with the Chicago White Sox. The only thing that can stop this team is injuries. Otherwise, they will finish with anywhere between 85-90 wins.
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Final Cubs Over/Under Win Total Prediction: Over 83.5 Wins: -115
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