One of the most well-known names in the fantasy football industry is Christian McCaffrey, and his ceiling for the 2023 NFL season is incredibly high. Entering into his first full season with the San Francisco 49ers, anything could truly happen.

Having made a name for himself back with the Carolina Panthers, McCaffrey has cut his teeth over the past six years as the best dual-threat running back in the NFL. After being traded to San Francisco before last year’s trade deadline, McCaffrey enjoyed a ton of success in a run-heavy attack.

Kyle Shanahan is probably the closest you can get to being a perfect fit for McCaffrey’s play style – and that was on full display last season. Even with the quarterback questions (that are still unanswered), the Niners were able to utilize McCaffrey in a way that certainly helped take your fantasy football rosters to a championship.

2022 Season in Review

244 carries, 1,139 rushing yards, 8 TDs, 85 receptions, 741 receiving yards, 5 TDs

It might be the most important part of the success that McCaffrey experienced last season – being healthy for all 17 games, the first time he played in a full season since 2019. With as many touches as he has accrued across his career, CMC’s body has paid the toll more often than not.

The starkness in usage for McCaffrey between how the Panthers and Niners utilized him is very evident. While San Francisco did have him for 11 games, McCaffrey nearly doubled his rushing and receiving yardage totals compared to his 6 games with the Panthers.

The offensive line in San Francisco is overly reliant on left tackle Trent Williams, devoid of much other talent at the other four positions. Thankfully, McCaffrey’s talent is able to make up for that, but there certainly were some moments where those cracks were very evident.

2023 Season Preview

In his first full season in San Francisco, things should be pretty solid yet again for McCaffrey. While Elijah Mitchell will certainly still command a pretty heavy workload for an RB2 when compared to other RB2s across the league, it only helps keep McCaffrey healthy for the long run.

The run-focused approach by Shanahan will not change, especially with the three-headed monster at QB still not worked out. As Brock Purdy continues to work his way back from his arm injury, both Sam Darnold and Trey Lance have failed to do a ton to separate from one another in camp up to this point.

The uncertainty at QB will be a huge reason that leads to heavy usage early on to start the season for McCaffrey, and Shanahan’s willingness to utilize CMC in the passing game likely means more snaps for Mitchell too. The screen game will likely be a heavily-used play call to start the year, regardless of who is the signal caller.

The offensive line woes are still very concerning, and this unit is questionably worse than the offensive line unit currently in Carolina. Having lost starting right tackle Mike McGlinchey to Denver in free agency leaves a big hole on that side, something that wasn’t fixed in the 2023 NFL Draft.

Projected Stats

211 carries, 971 yards, 9 TDs, 91 receptions, 689 receiving yards, 2 TDs

The 2022 NFL season was the second heaviest year for usage in McCaffrey’s career (329 total touches), and that likely will see a downtick this year. Shanahan understands how to ride the hot hand when it comes to superstars, but also understands the importance of relying on depth and keeping his best players fresh.

Even with that being the case, expect a fairly-heavy year of usage for McCaffrey, even if it pales in comparison to a few of his career years. Failing to reach 1,000 rushing yards may come off as a bit of a surprise, but combining a below-average offensive line, the likely increased usage of Mitchell, and potentially seeing Lance in to vulture some carries, and you have a lower rushing yardage total.

A heavy usage in the receiving game should be expected for McCaffrey, even if the yardage doesn’t quite match his career average of yards per catch. Shorter checkdowns and touch passes will create an uptick in his reception total to the highest amount since 2019.

Finally, a somewhat lesser scoring TD may come off as the most surprising stat, but it makes sense to project McCaffrey more towards a volume-driven season than a scoring-driven season this year. With Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and others commanding a ton of red-zone work, they should earn the lionshare of scoring opportunities for the Niners this season – but McCaffrey will still be a RB1 for your fantasy football roster.