The Iowa Hawkeyes take on the Illinois Fighting Illini. Check out our college football odds series for our Iowa Illinois prediction and pick.

The Iowa Hawkeyes would be one of the best teams in the country … if they had a quarterback. This was said in the offseason. It was said at the start of the regular season. It is being said one month into the regular season. If Iowa had a reasonably competent quarterback to complement an excellent defense which is right up there with the other great defenses of the lengthy Kirk Ferentz era (which stretches back to 1999), Iowa would be an extremely hard team to beat. The Hawkeyes allowed just 10 points to Iowa State earlier this season. They lost. They held a powerful and potent Michigan team under 30 points, a solid though not spectacular defensive performance. They lost, squandering numerous opportunities on offense.

When you look around at the Big Ten West Division, you will find a lot of mediocrity. Iowa would be able to separate itself from the rest of the pack with good quarterback play, but the Hawkeyes lack that, so they are part of a big jumble in a mediocre division which will produce a massive underdog against Ohio State or Michigan in this year's Big Ten Championship Game.

One surprising team could emerge from that big jumble. It is the team Iowa will face in Week 6.

Bret Bielema coached at Wisconsin for seven seasons and won multiple Big Ten championships with the Badgers. He coached in multiple Rose Bowls and did a great job of carrying forth a winning tradition in Madison after program patriarch Barry Alvarez handed him the keys. What profound irony it is that after Bielema's Illinois team smacked Wisconsin 34-10, the Badgers immediately fired head coach Paul Chryst. It was as though losing at home to a former Wisconsin head coach was the last straw for the Badgers. Losing to Bielema was something they could not tolerate. Illinois has a defense which has consistently played well this season. Defensive coordinator Ryan Walters is a rising star in the coaching industry, and he has enabled the Illini to become tougher on that side of the ball. This is why the over-under for the game against Iowa is so low. There is an expectation that both defenses are going to dominate. If Illinois can survive this game, the Illini have a very reasonable chance of winning the Big Ten West. Other teams in the division will have a hard time winning at Wisconsin (if they play the Badgers on the road in Madison). Illinois would be in a position where merely splitting its remaining key Big Ten West games would give the Illini a winning margin in the division. This is a massive opportunity for Illinois football and its head coach.

Here are the Iowa-Illinois NCAA Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: Iowa-Illinois Odds

Iowa Hawkeyes: +3.5 (-128)

Illinois Fighting Illini: -3.5 (+104)

Over: 36.5 (-114)

Under: 36.5 (-106)

Why Iowa Could Cover the Spread

The Hawkeyes' defense is going to lock down the Illinois offense. As long as Iowa doesn't commit turnovers or huge penalties (such as a fourth-down pass interference flag), it can win this game merely by avoiding mistakes. Lots of games are won by making big plays, but some games can be won simply by getting out of the way and avoiding problems. This is one. Iowa's defense can do the work if the offense and special teams avoid stumbles.

Why Illinois Could Cover the Spread

If Iowa can win by avoiding mistakes, so can Illinois. The Illini have a defense, coached by coordinator Ryan Walters, which is nearly as good as Iowa's defense. The difference is that Iowa quarterback Spencer Petras has a very good chance of making that one big mistake (maybe two) which can steer this game in Illinois' direction. Phrased differently, Illinois has a better chance than Iowa of playing a low-mistake game conducive to winning a slugfest such as this one.

Final Iowa-Illinois Prediction & Pick

The defenses are going to feast in this game, so you can take the under. Illinois is facing a lot of pressure and expectations, and one questions if the Illini will handle prosperity well. Take Iowa.

Final Iowa-Illinois Prediction & Pick: Iowa +3.5, under 36.5