The Oklahoma State Cowboys take on the Baylor Bears. Check out our college football odds series for our Oklahoma State Baylor prediction and pick.

The Baylor Bears are one of the most mysterious teams in college football. They lost to BYU in Week 2. BYU has subsequently looked very bad, getting crushed by Oregon and then struggling for two and a half quarters versus Utah State before pulling away to win by a modest 12-point margin. BYU was favored by 24 points in that game against USU on Thursday night. Baylor is coming off a road win over Iowa State, which is certainly a solid and encouraging result for the Bears and head coach Dave Aranda, but we don't really know how good (or bad) Iowa State truly is. Baylor is an unknown team. The Bears were unable to pass the ball against BYU. Their offense was painfully limited. BYU was able to load the tackle box and stop the run, knowing Baylor would not hurt the Cougars on downfield passes. Baylor has to build capacity and diversity in its overall offensive attack. This is going to be a central point of focus in this Oklahoma State game and in the remainder of the 2022 season.

Oklahoma State is also a mysterious team. The Cowboys' 17-point win over Arizona State in Week 2 of the season looks worse, not better, a few weeks later, since Arizona State lost to Eastern Michigan and has looked absolutely terrible. Oklahoma State needed three quarters before it finally pulled away from the Sun Devils. The Cowboys have not been significantly tested, and they haven't played a road game yet in 2022.

This game means a lot to Oklahoma State. The Cowboys had an opportunity last December to make the College Football Playoff. If they had beaten Baylor in the Big 12 Championship Game, they would have had a great chance. The OSU defense was excellent against Baylor's offense. That side of the ball did its job. However, Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders threw four interceptions. Some of them prevented OSU from scoring, and some of them set up Baylor points. Even with those four picks, OSU still had a chance to win when it had the ball near the Baylor goal line at the end of regulation, but the Bears stuffed the Cowboys and won, 21-16.

Spencer Sanders threw three interceptions against Baylor in the first of two meetings between the schools in 2021, meaning that in the two OSU-Baylor games last year, Sanders threw seven picks against the Bears. Think this game means something to him? Yeah.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Oklahoma State-Baylor College Football odds.

College Football Odds: Oklahoma State-Baylor Odds

Oklahoma State Cowboys: +2.5 (-110)

Baylor Bears: -2.5 (-110)

Over: 55.5 (-108)

Under: 55.5 (-112)

Why Oklahoma State Could Cover the Spread

You can see how limited the Baylor offense is. Beyond that, Spencer Sanders — haunted by Baylor's defense in two games last year — is bound to play better this year. Moreover, it's not as though Oklahoma State has to score tons of points. If Sanders can simply avoid turnovers, that's a big improvement from the 2021 games between these teams. Also, Oklahoma State had the week off last week. OSU has had two weeks to study Baylor on film and get healthy for this game. That's huge.

Why Baylor Could Cover the Spread

Baylor knows how to take the ball from Oklahoma State. The Bears know how to deal with coach Mike Gundy's offense. Dave Aranda is a defensive mastermind. He can replicate his success against the Cowboys.

Final Oklahoma State-Baylor Prediction & Pick

If Spencer Sanders doesn't turn the ball over, Oklahoma State wins. The Cowboys will contain Baylor's offense and not give away free points or possessions. That will be enough. The under is also a good play.

Final Oklahoma State-Baylor Prediction & Pick: Oklahoma State +2.5, under 55.5