UFC 325: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes 2 continues on the prelims with a bout between Sebastian Szalay and Keiichiro Nakamura in the featherweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Szalay-Nakamura prediction and pick.
Sebastian Szalay (10-1) enters the Road to UFC finale following back-to-back dominant victories. After outworking Baergeng Jieleyisi in the quarterfinals, the Australian viciously knocked out Yoon Chang Min in the semis in just 47 seconds. He now aims to secure a contract as he comes into his fight this weekend against Keiichiro Nakamura.
Keiichiro Nakamura (7-1) brings a seven-fight win streak into the Road to UFC featherweight finale. The dynamic Japanese striker showcased his power with a brutal knee knockout of Eo Jin Park in the quarterfinals before showing patience in a unanimous decision win over Kaiwen Li in the semis. He looks to cap off his tournament run as he comes into his fight this weekend against Sebastian Szalay.
Here are the UFC 325 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 325 odds: Sebastian Szalay-Keiichiro Nakamura odds
Sebastian Szalay: -142
Keiichiro Nakamura: +120
Over 1.5 rounds: -200
Under 1.5 rounds: +154
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Why Sebastian Szalay will win
- Last Fight: (W) Chang Min Yoon – KO/TKO R1
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 3 ( 2 KO/TKO/ 1 SUB)
Sebastian Szalay (10-1) holds the critical advantages to neutralize and defeat Keiichiro Nakamura this Saturday at UFC 325. The Australian's superior striking defense (71% compared to Nakamura's 66%) and significantly lower absorption rate (1.27 strikes per minute versus 3.39) give him a clear defensive edge. Szalay's karate-based movement, counter-punching precision, and ability to frustrate opponents with neutralizing grappling create stylistic problems for the flashy Japanese striker.
Nakamura's defensive flaws—keeping his chin high and hands returning slowly to his face—leave him vulnerable to Szalay's accurate counters, particularly his dangerous left hook that finished Chang Min Yoon in 47 seconds. While Nakamura carries knockout power, his 83% takedown defense is suspect against pressure. Szalay's economical striking, defensive soundness, and fight IQ allow him to survive early danger and impose a grinding pace.
The Australian's experience advantage and ability to win rounds through control rather than fireworks positions him perfectly to weather Nakamura's early aggression. Szalay's cerebral approach, tight angles, and evasive footwork will frustrate the younger knockout artist. His cardio and composure in championship rounds provide the edge in a decision as he comes into his fight this weekend against Keiichiro Nakamura.
Why Keiichiro Nakamura will win
- Last Fight: (W) Kaiwen Li – DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 6 (6 KO/TKO)
Keiichiro Nakamura (7-1) possesses the firepower and explosiveness to hand Sebastian Szalay his second career loss this Saturday at UFC 325. The 27-year-old Japanese knockout artist lands 5.22 significant strikes per minute compared to Szalay's 4.25, establishing an aggressive output advantage that can overwhelm opponents. Nakamura's devastating finishing instinct—86% of his victories coming by knockout—presents constant danger that Szalay has never encountered at this level.
The knockout of Eo Jin Park exemplified Nakamura's fight-ending precision, catching the takedown with a vicious flying knee that demonstrated his elite timing and counter-striking. His ability to read patterns and detonate power strikes in transition creates openings against methodical fighters like Szalay. While Szalay relies on point-fighting and grinding decisions, Nakamura hunts finishes with calculated aggression.
Szalay's sole professional loss came via decision to Abdalla Biayda, revealing vulnerabilities when pressured by aggressive, well-rounded opponents. Nakamura's youth, confidence, and explosive athleticism give him physical advantages that can exploit Szalay's pedestrian striking output. The Japanese prospect's momentum from back-to-back Road to UFC victories positions him perfectly to shock the Australian as he comes into his fight this weekend against Sebastian Szalay.
Final Sebastian Szalay-Keiichiro Nakamura prediction & pick
Sebastian Szalay emerges as the favorite to win this Road to UFC featherweight finale. The Australian's technical superiority, defensive soundness, and home-field advantage in Sydney position him as the more complete mixed martial artist in this matchup. Szalay's ability to neutralize explosive strikers through disciplined footwork, counter-striking, and defensive wrestling gives him multiple paths to victory over three rounds.
While Nakamura possesses devastating knockout power and enters on a seven-fight winning streak, his defensive vulnerabilities and susceptibility to patient, cerebral fighters favor Szalay's calculated approach. The Australian's experience advantage at 37 years old, combined with fighting in front of a home crowd, provides intangible benefits that could prove decisive in close exchanges. Szalay's recent 47-second knockout demonstrates he's peaking at the right moment, blending his technical acumen with finishing instinct.
Expect Szalay to weather early danger from Nakamura's aggressive striking, then impose his pace and control as the fight progresses as Sebastian Szalay gets the win via unanimous decision, moving to 11-1 and securing his UFC contract in front of a raucous Australian audience.
Final Sebastian Szalay-Keiichiro Nakamura Prediction & Pick: Sebastian Szalay (-142), Over 1.5 Rounds (-200)
