Damien Harris finally got handed the keys to the starting running back job for the New England Patriots in 2021, and he didn't disappoint. Harris had a breakout campaign (202 CAR, 929 YDS, 15 TD) for the Pats, and established himself as one of the best running backs in the league.

Harris will head into the 2022 campaign looking to reprise his status as New England's lead running back, and he will have the inside track to do so. But is it reasonable to expect Harris to be able put together a campaign like the one he had in 2021? That remains to be seen.

The Patriots offense as a whole should be set to improve in 2022, which would make things easier for Harris. However, there's a lot of competition in the Patriots' running back room currently, and that may result in Harris' carries dwindling, limiting his fantasy value in turn. Let's take a look at Harris' fantasy football outlook for the 2022 season, and see why a repeat of his 2021 campaign may be unattainable.

Damien Harris' 2022 fantasy football outlook

On a per carry basis, Harris is one of the best running backs in the NFL. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry last season, which was fifth in the league among rushers who had at least 200 carries. When Harris gets the ball, he almost always picks up a decent chunk of yards, and he has a knack for finding his way into the end zone as well.

But a closer look at Harris' stats and the Patriots roster as a whole shows that his production from the 2021 season probably isn't attainable again. There were a lot of things that went right for Harris last season that probably won't happen again, and that will limit his fantasy outlook substantially for the upcoming season.

First off, it's worth noting that Harris was the eighth best running back in terms of fantasy points last season. It helped that many of the top running backs in the league missed time with injuries, but it also helped that Harris scored 15 touchdowns last season, which was second most among running backs behind only James Conner on the Arizona Cardinals.

Chances are Harris isn't going to score 15 touchdowns again this season, which would significantly limit his outlook. Harris played only 15 games last season, meaning he basically scored a touchdown per game. That isn't going to carry over to the 2022 season, and even if it does, it's very risky to rely on a player who's fantasy production comes primarily from touchdowns.

Harris will still probably get the brunt of New England's goal-line carries, but even that isn't guaranteed. The running back room Harris is a part of is very crowded. Rhamondre Stevenson had a tremendous rookie campaign, and is more of a 1B to Harris' 1A rather than being a straight up backup for Harris.

In passing situations for the Pats, Harris typically will not be a factor. He only had 18 catches out of the backfield last season, and that's because New England relies heavily on a passing back rather than their typical running back for these situations. Last season, it was Brandon Bolden who filled in for the injured James White. White is back for the 2022 season, and Ty Montgomery was picked up in free agency as well to fill in at this role.

Touches are going to be harder to come by for Harris in 2022. He barely eclipsed 200 carries last season, and it's fair to wonder, given the emergence of Stevenson and the return of White, whether Harris will even reach that total in 2022. He still is a very valuable red zone threat for fantasy owners, but his production may get chopped pretty significantly otherwise.

If that's the case, it's not worth counting on Harris solely for his touchdown production, because he won't score 15 touchdowns again this season. Harris was a solid RB2 last season with RB1 upside depending on New England's depth chart looked on a weekly basis at running back, but RB2 may be Harris' ceiling in 2022.

As a result of the Patriots crowded backfield and Harris' touchdown heavy metrics, he's outside most people's list of top 20 running backs. Harris will probably serve better as a FLEX option rather than a straight up RB2 option in 2022, but he still holds value on the basis that he should be New England's top running back heading into the 2022 season.

Harris cannot be counted on to replicate his 2021 production, which will cause him to slide down many folks draft boards. He will probably be available midway through most drafts, with the seventh through tenth rounds seeming like logical draft points for Harris. Harris still has upside as New England's top running back, but there are a lot of question marks surrounding him right now, making him a risky selection for many fantasy owners.