The air is a little different around the AFC this season. Over the last few years, we've had the usual suspects show up on top of the conference. The Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, and Baltimore Ravens were the three big contenders in the AFC. While there were occasional challengers to the throne, the AFC was often decided between these three teams.
This year, though, there's been a massive shakeup. Gone are the Chiefs, who have been eliminated from playoff contention already. The Ravens are on the outside looking in, their playoff berth not guaranteed in the slightest. The Bills stand as the last contender from the previous era, but even their foothold on the top of the AFC is in question.
In their place are new top contenders for the throne. If this was last season, the Bills would be joyous at the fact that the Chiefs are out of the playoffs and the Ravens are looking shaky. However, they have a new host of issues to deal with when they do make the playoffs. What's the nightmare playoff scenario for the Bills with three weeks left in the season?
First round matchup to avoid: Houston Texans
Over the course of the season, the blueprint to stop Josh Allen and the Bills has been relatively simple: apply pressure to Josh Allen. Most teams that were able to stop Buffalo this season relied on a strong pass-rush to muddy up Allen's reads and make it harder for him to make a play.
The Houston Texans found great success with this strategy this year. In their matchup against each other, the Texans suffocated Allen, forcing two interceptions and sacking the Bills quarterback eight times. Allen was under fire all game long, and the offense suffered as a result, only scoring 19 points during the game.
The worst part for the Bills? That wasn't even the Texans' best form. Houston ended up barely scraping by Buffalo, but one must remember that Davis Mills was starting for the Texans that day. Mills had a solid performance all things considered, but the Texans are clearly much better with CJ Stroud starting as their quarterback.
How likely is it for Bills, Texans to face each other in playoffs?
It's also worth pointing out that there's more than a few scenarios where the Bills could face the Texans as early as the first round. Right now, both teams occupy the sixth and seventh seeds, respectively. As it stands, the two teams cannot face each other in the first round. However, should one of them find a way to win their divisions, that would slide them all the way up to one of the top seeds, potentially setting up a clash between the two.
It seems more likely that the Texans could wrest control of the AFC North from the Jaguars. The Texans have a slightly easier schedule (Raiders, Chargers, Colts) than the Jaguars (Broncos, Colts, Titans). Meanwhile, while the Bills tied their season series with the Patriots earlier, New England's lead seems to be a little too insurmountable at this point in the season.
Playoffstatus.com currently has the Texans as the Bills' second-most likely opponent in the first round of the postseason at 15%. Even with a shaky defense, the Bills can go toe-to-toe with most teams due to their offensive firepower. When faced with a defense that can limit their output, though, Buffalo's chances start to falter.
The next few weeks will shape the Bills' playoff path this season. They're virtually a lock for the playoffs at this point, and seeding is really the only thing they're playing for. Will Buffalo end up playing against the team that gave them the most headaches this season?
