It's very rare that you get a battle of top-three MVP candidates in December, but that's exactly what we got on Sunday when Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills played Drake Maye and the New England Patriots.
Maye looked like he was poised to get his hands on the award and the AFC East crown when the Patriots went upon 21-0 in the first half. However, Allen had other ideas, staging a massive comeback that included five consecutive touchdown drives to help the Bills get a 35-31 win and stay alive in the division race.
Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford strengthened his stranglehold on the top spot with a masterful performance in a 41-34 win over the Lions. He can make another big statement in a massive game against the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday night.
Did Allen do enough to pass Maye? And who rounds out the top five with just three weeks to go?
Honorable Mention: Colts RB Jonathan Taylor, Browns EDGE Myles Garrett, Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cowboys QB Dak Prescott
5. Chargers QB Justin Herbert
The stats won't tell you Justin Herbert should be anywhere near an MVP list. In order to truly grasp the impact that Herbert has, you really have to watch the Chargers play. The Los Angeles run game is above-average in terms of efficiency, but it doesn't get a lot of explosive plays and also has a lot of negative gains.
The offensive line has been an abject disaster since Joe Alt suffered a season-ending ankle injury, just the biggest of a long list of injuries up front. Herbert has been pressured 239 times total this season according to Next Gen Stats; Cam Ward (201) is the only other QB above 200. His 43.9% pressure rate trails only Justin Fields, who was benched midseason.
Despite all of those problems on offense, Herbert has the Chargers at 10-4 and still in the AFC West race despite the Broncos' 11-game winning streak. In a win over the Chiefs on Sunday, Herbert throwing downfield into tight windows was Los Angeles' only way to move the ball, and he did it often enough to get the win.
I would go as far as to make the case that if you replaced every quarterback in the NFL with a replacement-level player, the Chargers would experience the biggest drop-off. That alone won't win him the award, but it's enough for a spot on the list.
4. Packers QB Jordan Love
Week 15 was a tale of two halves for Love and the Packers. Green Bay's offense was on fire in the early going, getting out to a 23-14 lead over the Broncos despite some struggles in the red zone.
However, after a third-quarter interception by Patrick Surtain II, everything went downhill for Green Bay. Both Christian Watson and Micah Parsons got injured and the Packers sputtered on both sides of the ball in a 34-26 loss.
Love likely needed a big performance and a win in that game in order to have a real chance to win the MVP, but he is still having one of the most efficient passing seasons in the NFL to remain at No. 4.
3. Patriots QB Drake Maye
Maye was not at the top of the list of problems that cost the Patriots the game, and their 21-0 lead, on Sunday, but the MVP is a narrative award. While Maye and the New England offense floundered due to penalties and offensive line injuries, Josh Allen completely took over and marched the Bills up and down the field to stay alive in the division race.
Maye is still the No. 1 reason for the Patriots' stunning resurgence this season, and that has him comfortably in the top three as he has ascended to the elite tier of quarterbacks in just his second season. He has a chance to make a big statement in prime time when the Pats play the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night.
2. Bills QB Josh Allen
Maybe this is overreacting to the head to head and Allen's Week 15 performance, but when Josh Allen takes over a game, there's truly nothing like it in the sport at the moment. A couple of times per season, the reigning MVP will carry his team to victory no matter the circumstances around him, and he did just that on Sunday while making heroic play after heroic play.
Allen has the Bills sitting at 10-4 despite a banged-up offensive line, an average defense and a really poor receiving core that doesn't get a whole lot of separation. But he is still Josh Allen, the best player in football, and that's enough to have Buffalo contending for a Super Bowl once again.
1. Rams QB Matthew Stafford
Allen still didn't do enough to overtake Stafford, who was ruthlessly efficient in a 41-34 win over the Detroit Lions. Stafford finished 24-for-38 for 368 yards, two touchdowns and an interception for an offense that racked up 30 first downs on Sunday.
Things will be more difficult for Stafford in Week 16 against an elite Seattle Seahawks defense, especially if he doesn't have Davante Adams after the star receiver re-aggravated his hamstring injury on Sunday. However, if he can put up a big performance and get a win on the road, essentially clinching the top seed in the NFC as a result, the award is all but his.
