The Buffalo Bills enter Week 15 in an enviable but still unfinished position. They are firmly in the AFC playoff picture, yet staring at a pivotal matchup that could redefine their postseason ceiling. Sure, most analytical models agree that Buffalo is all but guaranteed a playoff berth. The difference between a Wild Card road path and a potential division crown, though, still hangs in the balance. December football is intensifying, and margins are tightening across the AFC. As such, the Bills’ playoff picture is less about survival and more about seizing opportunity.
Bills’ 2025 season so far
The Bills are having a strong 2025 NFL season. They enter Week 15 with a 9–4 record that places them second in the AFC East. They sit just behind the division-leading New England Patriots, who are also their Week 15 foes.
Buffalo has been one of the conference’s most consistent teams. They have paired a high-powered offense with a defense capable of closing games late. As a result, analytical models from ESPN, The Athletic, and FTN Fantasy give the Bills an all but certain chance of reaching the postseason. Now, Buffalo is currently projected as the AFC’s fifth seed. However, Week 15 brings a critical head-to-head matchup with New England. A win would keep division title hopes alive. A loss would likely lock the Bills into a Wild Card path.
Here we will look at and discuss the Buffalo Bills playoff picture, including their updated DVOA and The Athletic, ESPN model odds before Week 15.
FTN Fantasy DVOA and odds
According to FTN Fantasy’s DVOA and DAVE models, Buffalo’s postseason outlook is exceptionally strong. The Bills’ 9–4 record is backed by elite efficiency metrics, including a DAVE rating of 10.8%. That's actually the highest mark in the AFC East. Yes, it's even higher than the Patriots'. That performance reflects Buffalo’s balance on both sides of the ball and its ability to sustain success across multiple game scripts.
More importantly, FTN’s models translate that efficiency into a 97.4% chance of making the playoffs. Even without a division title, Buffalo is viewed as one of the AFC’s most dangerous Wild Card teams. Sure, the Patriots still control the East. That said, FTN’s analytics suggest the Bills are well-positioned to make noise in January. This is especially true if they continue to perform at a top-tier efficiency level.
ESPN playoff odds
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) echoes the optimism surrounding Buffalo. The model assigns the Bills a 97% chance of reaching the postseason. That reinforces the idea that their playoff berth is nearly locked in. ESPN also gives Buffalo an 18% chance of winning the AFC East. That figure underscores just how pivotal the Week 15 showdown with New England truly is.
Beyond simply making the playoffs, ESPN’s projections paint Buffalo as a legitimate contender. The Bills hold a 4% chance of earning a first-round bye and a robust 16% chance of reaching Super Bowl LX. Those numbers place Buffalo firmly among the AFC’s second tier of contenders. The Bills are among the teams capable of making a deep run if matchups break their way.
Bills playoff odds via The Athletic
The Athletic’s playoff simulator delivers an equally encouraging forecast. The model projects Buffalo to finish the regular season at 12–5. That is good enough to secure the AFC’s fifth seed as a wild card. It also reflects confidence in Buffalo’s remaining schedule and overall team strength.
The Athletic gives the Bills a 98% chance of making the playoffs, along with an 11% chance to win the AFC East. They also carry an 8% chance to reach Super Bowl LX. Sure, those Super Bowl odds trail the AFC’s top seed contenders. However, they reinforce the idea that Buffalo is well-positioned to make a meaningful postseason run rather than simply participate.
What it all means for Buffalo
Across every major analytical model, the conclusion is unmistakable: the Bills are playoff-bound. Their performance over the first 14 weeks has created some rare breathing room in December. With qualification all but assured, Buffalo can now afford to think strategically about matchups and how best to peak at the right time. The focus shifts from survival to optimization. They still need to clean up execution, manage workloads, and sharpen situational football. Week 15’s matchup with New England is about leverage. It's a chance to keep division hopes alive and improve postseason positioning in a tightly packed AFC field.
Bottom line
The Bills’ playoff picture before Week 15 is defined by strength, stability, and opportunity. With postseason odds hovering near certainty, Buffalo has earned the right to play with confidence rather than urgency. A division title remains within reach. Even a Wild Card path offers meaningful upside for a team that has proven capable on the road. More importantly, the Bills are built for January football. On paper, they looked balanced, resilient, and experienced in high-stakes environments. December, for Buffalo, is really about refining an identity and determining just how dangerous they can be when the postseason begins.
