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Chaos is the best word that can be used to describe the Western Conference standings heading into the final two days of games. The Denver Nuggets, LA Clippers, Golden State Warriors, Memphis Grizzlies, and Minnesota Timberwolves are all still jockeying for position, and every game played will help determine each of these teams' fate.
Before Friday's key matchups, the Nuggets and Clippers are 48-32 and tied for the 4-seed in the standings. The Warriors, Grizzlies, and Timberwolves are one game behind them at 47-33.
Tiebreakers will undoubtedly play a role in how the West playoff picture is shaped, but which tiebreakers will matter the most?
While many tend to point to head-to-head records against one team playing a big role, that is not always the case when multiple teams are tied. With how tight the standings race is, we should expect multiple teams to be tied after Sunday's games, which raises questions about how multi-team tiebreakers are broken.
If three or more teams are tied in the standings, the league first considers any division winners. From there, the combined head-to-head record and win percentage among the tied teams is the next criteria to be met.
When looking at the current standings with Golden State, Memphis, and Minnesota — it's the Warriors who own the tiebreaker and get the higher seed because they won six of eight games played against their two rivals.
After this combined head-to-head tiebreaker, the NBA will take the division record into account if the teams are in the same division, followed by conference record. If the tiebreaker was to reach conference record, this would likely be as far as it would go.
A lot of clarity on the West standings and tiebreaker scenarios will be provided on Friday since every team is in action. But heading into these games, there is still the possibility for a five-team pile-up from the 4-seed through the 8-seed that the NBA may need to sort through.
Although the chances of this happening are low, it is a believable scenario worth discussing since the current 4-seed and 8-seed could swap places.
Could we see the craziest tiebreaker scenario ahead of the NBA playoffs?
Nuggets, Clippers are key to West standings
The first order of business when dissecting a potential five-team tiebreaker is looking at who the Nuggets and Clippers still have on their schedule.
It is important to note that the Grizzlies lost at home to the Timberwolves on Thursday night. As a result of this loss, Minnesota now controls their fate for the playoffs despite holding the 8-seed entering Friday.
More on this a little later.
The reason Memphis' loss impacts Denver is because these two teams will meet on Friday night. It is a tall task to ask the Grizzlies to defeat the Nuggets on the second night of a back-to-back after a late ending on Thursday, but Ja Morant's squad will be fighting for their lives.
After all, the Grizzlies will be locked into the play-in tournament if they lose to the Nuggets and if the Warriors defeat the Portland Trail Blazers on Friday.
This is a very important game for the Grizzlies. If they can pull off an upset over Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets, then both of these teams will be 48-33. The Warriors would join them with a win in Portland.
Denver could potentially clinch a playoff spot and end all hopes of a five-team tiebreaker scenario if they defeat Memphis and see either the Clippers, Warriors, or Timberwolves lose.
On the other side, the Clippers will also play a key role in a potential five-team tiebreaker.
The Sacramento Kings will host the Clippers on Friday night in a game that matters for both sides. Whereas the Kings want to claim home-court advantage in the winner-takes-all 9-seed vs. 10-seed play-in game, LA wants to keep its hopes of claiming the 4-seed alive. Not to mention, the Clippers could still fall into the play-in tournament.
Kawhi Leonard and James Harden have been playing terrific basketball lately, giving them the upper hand in this matchup with the Kings. Should the Clippers get a win on Friday, they would be in sole possession of the 4-seed at 49-32 — this is assuming Denver loses.
From here, figuring out what happens with Memphis is next on the agenda.
Can Grizzlies handle business?
The Grizzlies could not get a win against Minnesota on Thursday night. That is why Friday night's game in Denver will ultimately decide if the 80 games they played prior were a complete waste of time.
Although there is still a path to avoiding the play-in region of the standings if they lose and see the Warriors lose in Portland, the chances of Golden State losing back-to-back games are slim. The Warriors will be motivated to win on Friday after their heartbreaking loss to San Antonio, which is why the Grizzlies will need to beat the Nuggets to remain in the hunt.
In addition to needing a win over Denver on Friday, the Grizzlies will also need to take care of business on the final day of the regular season against the Dallas Mavericks.
Neither of these two games is a given, which is why we will learn a lot about the Grizzlies and their resilience over these final two games of the regular season. Morant has been playing highly motivated, and Memphis has a team capable of making the playoffs.
After all, the Grizzlies had been inside the top six through the season up until their last handful of games.
While a win against Minnesota could have solved many problems, the Grizzlies are instead taking a more difficult path to the playoffs. If the Grizzlies can win out, then the dream of the super five-team tiebreaker will be alive.
What happens in a 5-team tiebreaker?
A lot needs to happen on Friday and Sunday for a five-team tiebreaker in the Western Conference standings to play out.
The Warriors, Clippers, and Timberwolves should all be able to pick up wins on Friday night against teams with losing records. If any of these three teams lose, it will be detrimental to their chances of making the playoffs.
After all, the Dubs and Wolves will each make the playoffs should they win their final two games of the regular season, regardless of whether Denver wins out or whether the Clippers win on Friday in Sacramento.
Two wins for Golden State and Minnesota put them in the playoffs. The door for a five-team tiebreaker would also remain open.
If the Warriors win out, that means they would beat the Clippers on Sunday. Both teams would be 49-33 in this scenario. If Memphis and Minnesota can also win out, they would join those two teams at 49-33 this season.
That leaves only the Nuggets, who would lose to the Grizzlies on Friday in this scenario. Should Denver then defeat Houston in the final game of the season, the Nuggets would also be 49-33, creating a five-team logjam in the standings behind the 3-seed Los Angeles Lakers.
So which team would claim the 4-seed, which teams would claim a playoff spot, and who would ultimately be bumped down to the play-in region of the standings?
Because the Timberwolves defeated the Grizzlies on Thursday, Minnesota's ultimate tiebreaker over these five teams is essential. This season, the Wolves went a combined 9-5 against Denver, Memphis, Golden State, and LA.
In the event that all five teams are tied, this combined head-to-head record would be the best. As a result, the Timberwolves would rise from the 8-seed to the 4-seed and claim home-court advantage for a first-round series.
After the Wolves, the Clippers would claim the 5-seed because they would be a combined 8-5, including a potential loss to the Warriors on Sunday. While Denver may own the tiebreaker over Golden State, the Warriors' combined record against the other four teams would make them the 6-seed in this scenario.
Then everything comes down to the Grizzlies and Nuggets, who would see one another in the play-in tournament. The Grizzlies would claim the 7-seed over the Nuggets due to their potential win on Friday night in Denver.
A five-team tiebreaker scenario would create madness in the Western Conference playoff picture. Although this is still possible, everything depends on what happens Friday night with the Nuggets and Grizzlies.
Two teams who could potentially meet one another in a first-round series or a play-in game will shape the rest of the Western Conference standings for their rivals.
