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The Western Conference standings have been changing every night. While the Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets have clinched their spots at the top of the conference, every other team is still jockeying for position.
Even more drama was added to the West playoff picture on Wednesday night when the Golden State Warriors suffered arguably their worst loss of the season at home to the San Antonio Spurs.
If Victor Wembanyama and De'Aaron Fox were playing, this loss would be viewed much differently. However, it was Stephon Castle, Keldon Johnson, and Harrison Barnes who pushed San Antonio over the edge against Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green.
At some point, Golden State's rapid growth and success against some of the best teams in the conference would get to their heads. Unfortunately for the Dubs, this loss could not have come at a worse time since they were tied with the Denver Nuggets, LA Clippers, and Memphis Grizzlies in the standings entering Wednesday night.
All of these teams were one full game behind the Los Angeles Lakers, who were able to pick up an emotional victory on the road against the Dallas Mavericks in Luka Doncic's return game.
This loss from the Warriors doesn't change the Lakers' position in the 3-seed, but it does relieve pressure off Los Angeles entering their final two games of the season since that's one less team they need to worry about potentially stealing home-court advantage.
What transpired on Wednesday night was a doomsday scenario for the Warriors. Aside from this loss taking the Dubs out of contention for the 3-seed and basically the 4-seed, it also complicates their path to avoiding the play-in tournament.
With two games left on many teams' schedules, there is still no certainty as to who will end up where in the Western Conference standings. Here is what the playoff outlook appears to be for the Lakers, Nuggets, Clippers, Grizzlies, Warriors, and Timberwolves, including possible tiebreaker scenarios.
3. Los Angeles Lakers (49-31)
After a tough loss against the Oklahoma City Thunder, a game in which Luka Doncic was ejected despite the league rescinding his second technical foul from this one, the Lakers got back on track in Dallas.
This was a significant win for Los Angeles not only because of what it meant to Doncic but because they clinched a playoff spot. The Lakers also inched closer to winning the Pacific Division with this win and the Warriors' loss. By winning the Pacific Division, the Lakers would own tiebreakers over every other team still behind them in the West.
At this point, the stars have aligned for the Lakers to clinch the 3-seed in the West. Although it is still possible for them to lose their final two games and fall from this spot, it's much more likely that they will be able to defeat either Houston or Portland in their final two games. All the Lakers need is one more win to claim the 3-seed in the West.
The Rockets recently rested almost their entire starting lineup on Wednesday against the LA Clippers since they already clinched the 2-seed. They may do so again on Friday night against Los Angeles.
Should the Lakers surprisingly lose their final two games of the season, then it is possible for them to fall out of the 3-seed or 4-seed spot and home-court advantage. For the Nuggets, Clippers, or Grizzlies to jump the Lakers in the standings, they would each need to win all of their remaining games and see the Lakers lose twice.
The lowest spot the Lakers can fall to is the 5-seed in this scenario since they would own the tiebreaker over the loser between Denver and Memphis.
Highest possible seed: 3-seed | Lowest possible seed: 5-seed
4. Denver Nuggets (48-32)
David Adelman got his first win in his first game as the acting head coach of the Denver Nuggets since Michael Malone was fired. Even so, it's still hard to trust the Nuggets given the amount of stress Nikola Jokic is under to carry this team with Jamal Murray once again dealing with injuries.
Come time for the playoffs, there will also be questions about Adelman's ability to make the right calls down the stretch of games.
Overall, the Nuggets control their destiny at this point. If Denver can win their final two games against Memphis and Houston, they will host a first-round playoff series as the 4-seed.
While it's too early to project their opponent in this scenario, the Nuggets would likely host the winner of Thursday's game between the Timberwolves and Grizzlies or the winner of the Clippers and Warriors at the end of the season.
As far as tiebreakers go, the Nuggets own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Warriors. They won't be able to get a tiebreaker over the Lakers, and they would lose the division tiebreaker to Minnesota if they were tied with them at the end of the season. Memphis could also seize the tiebreaker over Denver with a win on Friday.
If Denver were to lose their remaining two games of the season against Memphis and Houston, they could be in danger of falling into the play-in tournament despite being the 4-seed right now. That is why the Nuggets must take care of business while they control their fate.
Highest possible seed: 3-seed | Lowest possible seed: 8-seed
5. LA Clippers (48-32)
Kawhi Leonard and the LA Clippers are the best team in the league that nobody is talking about. This group has lost only twice in their last 15 games, and the Clippers' defense can be suffocating.
Aside from Leonard being healthy, Norman Powell has also worked his way back to full strength from a hamstring issue that plagued him after the All-Star break. James Harden and Ivica Zubac are also playing terrific basketball right now.
Nobody will want to run into the Clippers at this point, which is why they could potentially go from being in the play-in region of the standings near the halfway point of the season to claiming either the 3-seed or 4-seed.
Of course, the Clippers will need some help from others to beat the Nuggets to jump Denver for the 4-seed. It is still possible for them to jump Denver and Los Angeles should both of these teams lose their final two games and the Clippers win out. Should LA win both their games and the Lakers and Nuggets do so as well, they will be the 5-seed and face Denver in the first round.
The Clippers defeated the Rockets 134-117 in their final home games of the season on Wednesday night. This was not much of a contest since Houston didn't play any of its starters besides Jalen Green. Now, LA will hit the road for two intriguing matchups with the Sacramento Kings and the Golden State Warriors.
The Kings want to hold onto the 9-seed, which is why a win would go a long way for them. Obviously, the Warriors are desperate for a big win after dropping Wednesday's game against San Antonio. This could make the final game of the season one that decides which team ends up in the play-in tournament.
It is important to note that the Clippers own head-to-head tiebreakers over Golden State and Memphis. They do not own a tiebreaker over Minnesota, and the Nuggets would own the tiebreaker against them unless LA jumps the Lakers in the standings to win the Pacific Division.
The Clippers have the best chance of seizing the 5-seed in the West.
Highest possible seed: 3-seed | Lowest possible seed: 8-seed
6. Memphis Grizzlies (47-32)
If the Grizzlies want to have a shot at avoiding the play-in tournament, they will need to beat the Timberwolves on Thursday night. This is a massive Western Conference clash, especially since a win by Minnesota could change quite a bit.
Although the Grizzlies still own the tiebreaker over the Timberwolves, a Memphis loss would benefit both Minnesota and Golden State, especially since Ja Morant and his team still need to play the Nuggets on the second night of a back-to-back on Friday.
Since the Warriors own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Grizzlies, a loss to Minnesota would result in Memphis falling into the lay-in tournament and no longer controlling their fate to make the playoffs.
If the Grizzlies win this game, then they will remain even with the Nuggets and Clippers in the standings, making Friday night's game in Denver even more important than it is already.
A range of possibilities remain for the Grizzlies, including a scenario where they could rise into the top four of the Western Conference standings. After all, wins over Minnesota and Denver, as well as losses by the Clippers, would allow the Grizzlies to jump into the top four.
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What happens on Thursday night in Memphis will directly impact all of these six teams still battling for position in the Western Conference playoff picture.
Highest possible seed: 3-seed | Lowest possible seed: 8-seed
7. Golden State Warriors (47-33)
It appeared as if the Warriors were going to coast their way into their season finale against the Clippers controlling their destiny to possibly move up into a spot where they could host a first-round series. Now, after losing to the Spurs thanks to a Harrison Barnes three at the buzzer, Golden State must win their final two games and receive help to avoid the play-in tournament.
The Warriors must handle business on Friday in Portland to have any shot at getting back to the 6-seed at the very least. A loss to the Blazers guarantees they would be in the play-in tournament unless they defeated the Clippers and saw the Grizzlies lose two of their final three games.
While a scenario to rise back into contention for the 4-seed is still technically a possibility, the chances of Denver and LA losing out, as well as Memphis losing to both Minnesota and Dallas, is slim. This is no longer the scenario that the Warriors are hunting, as they only want to avoid the play-in tournament.
At this rate, it looks likely that Golden State will be either the 6-seed or the 7-seed at the conclusion of the regular season. Should they be the 6-seed, a first-round matchup with LeBron James and the Lakers will be their reward.
Even before playing on Friday, the Warriors will cast their attention on what happens with the Grizzlies and Timberwolves. A win by Memphis makes the Warriors' path even more complicated with two games remaining.
Highest possible seed: 4-seed | Lowest possible seed: 8-seed
8. Minnesota Timberwolves (46-33)
All that matters for the Timberwolves is picking up a win in Memphis on Thursday night. If the Wolves lose this game, their chances of rising out of the play-in region of the Western Conference standings will take a massive hit.
The only way Minnesota could avoid being the 7-seed or 8-seed with a loss against the Grizzlies would be to pick up wins over Brooklyn and Utah as well as see both the Nuggets and Clippers lose all of their remaining games.
This scenario would see the Warriors and Grizzlies likely rise to the 4-seed and 5-seed in the conference. Minnesota would then be tied at 48-34 with Denver and LA. Since the Timberwolves have a combined 7-0 record against the Clippers and Nuggets, Anthony Edwards' squad would claim the 6-seed.
That is the only path for the Timberwolves to avoid the play-in tournament if they were to lose to the Grizzlies on Thursday night.
With a win, the Wolves' path becomes a lot smoother. Although the Grizzlies still own the tiebreaker this season regardless of the outcome on Thursday, these two teams would be even with the Warriors in the standings at 47-33 with two games remaining.
Minnesota has Brooklyn and Utah to close out the season, two tanking organizations who aren't looking to pick up any more wins this season. Those should be two easy wins for the Timberwolves, putting pressure on Memphis and Golden State to win their remaining games to avoid falling into the play-in region.
The first order of business is defeating the Grizzlies. After that, the Timberwolves will need some extra help to rise in the standings.
Highest possible seed: 4-seed | Lowest possible seed: 8-seed
What happens in a multi-team tie?
At some point, tiebreakers will come into play for the Western Conference standings. But what happens if multiple teams end up tied with one another and all the head-to-head tiebreakers cancel each other out?
When three or more teams are tied in the standings, the division winner will always have the upper hand. Both the Thunder and Rockets won their respective divisions in the Western Conference standings, and the Pacific Division is the only one yet to be clinched. The Lakers will likely claim this with a win in their next game.
The next stage of the multi-team tiebreaker looks at head-to-head record, followed by division record, if the teams are in the same division. Each team's record conference record is then evaluated, followed by each team's win-loss percentage against playoff-eligible teams in their conference if further tiebreaker criteria are needed.
That is why each of these games down the stretch matters. One loss could see a team go from being safely above the play-in tournament region to suddenly having to fight for their lives in the final game(s) of the season. That is the scenario the Warriors face after their heartbreaking loss to San Antonio.
If multiple teams are tied at the end of the season, the combined head-to-head record against the teams they are tied with will ultimately untangle these standings.
Only the Lakers, Nuggets, and Clippers control their fates at this point. Should these three teams win their remaining games, they will avoid falling in the standings. That would leave the 6-seed up for grabs between Minnesota, Memphis, and Golden State.
With the Timberwolves and Grizzlies set to play on Thursday, followed by the Grizzlies and Nuggets on Friday, the NBA playoff picture will become clearer over the next two days.
