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As the NFL continues to lean pass-heavy and teams cycle through running backs yearly, finding consistent fantasy football production at the running back has become increasingly difficult. In PPR leagues, Christian McCaffrey was the only running back to finish in the top 10 among the position in points for both the 2022 and 2023 seasons and one of just three RBs to be among the top 10 in touches each year.
Knowing which running backs to select is crucial, but determining which rushers to avoid is equally important. These five running backs will be fantasy football busts in 2024.
Raheem Mostert (Dolphins)
After years as a backup, Raheem Mostert finally received his chance as a starter last season and took full advantage of his opportunity. Mostert led the NFL with 21 touchdowns from scrimmage and surpassed the 1,000-yard mark on the ground for the first time in his career.
Will he still garner the lion's share of carries for the Dolphins in 2024? Mostert averaged 12.6 carries per game in the seven contests where rookie sensation De'Von Achane garnered at least 30% of the snaps. When Achane was injured, Mostert's workload jumped to 15.1 carries.
The Miami backfield will be even busier in 2024. The franchise drafted Jaylen Wilson in the fourth round — a speedster who offers big-time playmaking ability as a rusher and receiver. The Dolphins' backfield also includes former San Francisco 49ers ball carrier Jeff Wilson.
Not only could Mostert see a decrease in touches, but he will also struggle to match his total of 21 touchdowns. Over the last five seasons, just four players who finished in the top five in the NFL in touchdowns from scrimmage finished in the top ten the following year.
Expecting Mostert to be a top-10 or even top-20 fantasy football RB in 2024 is unreasonable.
Derrick Henry (Ravens)
Derrick Henry led the NFL in carries each of the four seasons he has played at least 15 games. This workload helped Henry remain among the elite fantasy football running backs despite a did in efficiency over the last few years.
Henry has averaged 361 carries per 17 games over the last five years — a total that will decline with the Baltimore Ravens. The powerful rusher will compete for carries with Lamar Jackson, who averages 145 rushing attempts per year. No RB has outgained Jackson since he became the team's full-time starter in 2019.
The Ravens also run a running back by committee. Baltimore's lead back (an ever-changing role) has averaged 157.2 carries per year in the Lamar Era, with only one back (Mark Ingram in 2019) exceeding 200 carries. 2023 lead back Gus Edwards finished 24th in the NFL with 198 carries.
Henry will not have competition from Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins — both now with the Los Angeles Chargers — but will still share carries with veteran Justice Hill, youngster Keaton Mitchell (on the PUP list to begin the year), and rookie fifth-round pick Rasheen Ali. In recent years, Ravens running backs have been notoriously difficult to trust in fantasy football. Derrick Henry will be no different.
Alvin Kamara (Saints)
Alvin Kamara is not the same player he once was. His 694 carries, 3.9 yards per carry, and 466 receiving yards were all career lows in 2023. Yet the New Orleans Saints running back still finished as RB11 in fantasy football thanks to 75 catches out of the backfield (second among NFL running backs). His efficiency in the passing game also dropped, as his yards per catch declined from 8.6 to a mere 6.2 — leading to fewer receiving yards despite 18 more catches versus 2022.
Kamara faced competition from Jamaal Williams and second-year back Kendre Miller — a third-round pick in 2023 — plus utility player Taysom Hill. With his production dropping, it is only a matter of time before Alvin Kamara is phased out of the Saints offense altogether.
Aaron Jones (Vikings)
After seven years with the Green Bay Packers, Aaron Jones made a surprising move to join divisional rivals, the Minnesota Vikings. Injuries slowed Jones for much of the 2023 season, but he finished with a flourish — recording at least 100 yards on the ground in his last five games, including both playoff contests. Does his late-season success make up for the fact that he missed six games or averaged just 3.7 yards per carry until Week 13? The veteran back will also turn 30 during the season, only strengthening concerns about his stamina and durability.
Then there are the issues with the Minnesota Vikings offense. Sam Darnold is the Vikes' Week 1 starter after rookie first-round pick J.J. McCarthy underwent season-ending knee surgery. Darnold has a career record of 21-35 with a passer rating of 78.3. Can the pass-catching trio of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson open things up enough for Aaron Jones to be effective in the running game? With Darnold under center, that proposition feels too big of a risk.
Rachaad White (Buccaneers)
Rachaad White is in a unique situation as a mediocre back thrust into RB1 status last year. White finished tied for second in the league with 272 carries but did not even eclipse the 1,000-yard mark thanks to an inefficient 3.6 yards per carry. His 990 yards on the ground were 14th in the league. But the Bucs back was also fourth among RBs with 64 catches, which helped him end up as RB4 in fantasy.
Yet despite White's lack of production, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers did not add much talent to the backfield. The team drafted Oregon runner Bucky Irving in the fourth round, slotting the rookie behind White. Irving had a productive career in the Pac-12 but is an undersized power back who lacks the vision and explosiveness to be an impactful player at the next level.
All signs point to another year of Rachaad White as a high-volume yet inefficient lead back. But it just does not sit right. A team can only stick with an underperforming player for so long before making a change. Do not trust Rachaad White as an RB1 this season in fantasy football.
