Subscribe
Follow Us
Fantasy football season is getting underway, and if you haven't drafted your teams yet, chances are you will be doing so in the near future. Having your strategy in place before you begin your draft is crucial, and when it comes to the wide receiver position, it's safe to say that there's a bountiful amount of options available for the taking.
The biggest determinant in the draft position of every player selected in fantasy football drafts is past performance, but in some cases, it can be misleading, as there are a handful of players, particularly at wide receiver, who won't be getting the same amount of touches as they did in 2023. So with that in mind, let's take a look at five wide receivers who are set to lose the most targets in the upcoming campaign.
5. DeAndre Hopkins, Tennessee Titans
DeAndre Hopkins flew under the radar a bit in the 2023 campaign. He put up strong numbers in his first season with the Tennessee Titans (75 REC, 1057 YDS, 7 TD), but his production wasn't consistent, which led to fantasy football owners straying away from him as the season went on. Plus, the Titans offense struggled quite a bit last season.
Hopkins enters the 2024 campaign knowing that Will Levis will be his quarterback, and the pair already have an established relationship on the field, which is a great start. The problem is that the Titans have a plethora of new playmakers, with Calvin Ridley joining Hopkins in the wide receiver corps, and Tony Pollard, who is a strong pass-catching running back, being signed in free agency to help replace Derrick Henry.
Hopkins received 137 targets last season, partly because the Titans didn't have any other established options in the passing game. That isn't the case anymore, and it's safe to say that Hopkins' production will take a hit as a result. He's still a player worth drafting, but he's going to start the season on your bench, and he realistically shouldn't be getting picked until the later rounds.
4. Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers
It seemed like Adam Thielen's career was on the downturn heading into 2023, but he ended up having a bounce back campaign, despite playing in the Carolina Panthers anemic offense. Thielen was a PPR machine last year (103 REC, 1014 YDS, 4 TD), and considering how he went undrafted in the majority of leagues last year, many fantasy football owners who snagged him did so through the waiver wire.
Thielen is on the radars of fantasy owners in 2024, but there's good reason to believe that he won't be producing at the same rate he did last season. The main issue is that the team picked up Diontae Johnson, who is a similar receiver as Thielen, in a trade this offseason, which means his target share will effectively be sliced in half.
Beyond that, Thielen is also entering his age 34 season, so it's fair to expect him to decline at some point, and that could happen in 2024. He defied expectations with a strong 2023 campaign, but he's not going to be receiving 137 targets again like he did last season, and that has to be taken into account when you consider selecting him towards the end of your drafts.
3. Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams
Puka Nacua was the breakout fantasy football star of the 2023 campaign. Emerging from literally out of nowhere, the sixth-round rookie quickly became Matthew Stafford's new favorite target amid Cooper Kupp's injury woes, and for folks who were lucky enough to snag Nacua on the waiver wire, they ended up landing a de facto WR1 (105 REC, 1486 YDS, 6 TD).
It was pretty incredible to see Nacua earn such a large target share for the Rams, despite the fact he was an unheralded rookie heading into the season. And while there is a ton of hype surrounding Nacua heading into the new year (rightfully so), it's worth noting that he probably isn't going to receive 160 targets like he did last season.
For starters, Kupp appears to be fully healthy heading into the 2024 campaign, which should immediately cut into Nacua's target share. With both guys on the field, Stafford should be able to spread the ball around a bit more, with Kyren Williams also chipping in out of the backfield as a receiver too. Nacua is a fantasy star for sure, but expect Kupp and company to take some of his targets away in 2024.
2. Keenan Allen, Chicago Bears
Keenan Allen had a nice bounce back campaign for the Los Angeles Chargers in 2023, largely because the team had nobody else to throw the football to. Despite being in his age 31 season, Allen received a whooping 150 targets, which led to some huge numbers (108 REC, 1243 YDS, 7 TD) for the veteran wide receiver.
Allen finds himself with the Chicago Bears, who have a loaded wide receiver corps around him. DJ Moore is the proverbial number one wide receiver, while Rome Odunze was also selected in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft to give the Bears an elite trio. While Allen should still be productive, he's not going to be earning 150 targets again in 2024.
Caleb Williams being under center should help Allen, Moore, and Odunze all be productive fantasy options, but if he spreads the ball around like expected, Allen's fantasy ceiling in particular will be a bit more limited given how reliant he is on receptions for fantasy production. You shouldn't shy away from Allen by any means, but this is certainly worth considering if you end up having the opportunity to pick him.
1. Stefon Diggs, Houston Texans
It's hard to ignore how different the 2024 campaign is going to look for Stefon Diggs. After getting traded from the Buffalo Bills to the Houston Texans, Diggs will go from being one of the most consistent wide receivers in the league to a big question mark, thanks in large to how many skill players the Texans offense has at its disposal.
Diggs may not even be the number one wide receiver in Houston's offense, as Nico Collins is fresh off a breakout campaign in 2023. Tank Dell is also back after he suffered a fractured fibula in Week 13, and both of these guys already have established connections with C.J. Stroud under center. Beyond that, tight end Dalton Schultz and running back Joe Mixon will be taking targets away from Diggs.
Simply put, there's no way Diggs will earn 160 targets like he did in 2023. The Texans have too many mouths to feed, and that's going to hurt their fantasy value, even if it leads to them being a dominant force on the field. Diggs simply may not be the fantasy football performer we've become accustomed to anymore, and that needs to be taken into account when potentially drafting him this year.
