The AFC East rivalry between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins takes center stage on Thursday Night Football in Week 3, and this matchup carries significant fantasy implications as both teams enter at opposite ends of the spectrum. The Bills arrive as 12.5-point favorites with a perfect 2-0 record, while the Dolphins desperately need to avoid an 0-3 start that would put their season in jeopardy.
The storylines heading into this game are compelling from a fantasy perspective. Buffalo's dominance over Miami continues, having won six straight meetings and 13 of the last 14 matchups. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are dealing with offensive line struggles and inconsistent quarterback play from Tua Tagovailoa, who has shown signs of panic when his first read is taken away. This creates both opportunities and pitfalls for fantasy managers willing to dig deeper than the obvious plays.
Bills-Dolphins Week 3 Start ‘Em
Keon Coleman emerges as one of the most compelling sleeper plays in Week 3, particularly after his explosive Week 1 performance against Baltimore. The second-year receiver caught eight passes on 11 targets for 112 yards and a touchdown in that Ravens matchup, demonstrating his ability to step up in big games. While he struggled against the Jets' elite secondary led by Sauce Gardner, posting just three catches for 26 yards, the Dolphins present a much more favorable matchup.
Miami's defense has been particularly vulnerable through the air, allowing a league-worst 78.8% completion percentage through the first two weeks. The Dolphins haven't allowed a player to record more than 100 receiving yards yet this season, but they've also faced weaker passing attacks than Buffalo's. Coleman's 15.5% target share from last season should increase with the departure of Gabe Davis, and he's already shown he can handle increased volume in crucial moments. Against a Miami secondary dealing with injuries and inexperience, Coleman could easily return WR2 numbers as Buffalo's passing game exploits the Dolphins' defensive weaknesses.
Dalton Kincaid represents excellent value as a streaming tight end option, particularly in a game where Buffalo is expected to control the pace and score points. The second-year tight end has been Josh Allen's most reliable target through two games, leading the team with a 22% target share in Week 2 against the Jets. His four catches for 37 yards on six targets may not jump off the page, but the volume and Allen's trust in him are evident.
Kincaid's strength lies in his ability to find soft spots in zone coverage, something Miami has struggled to defend based on early-season film. The Dolphins' defense has allowed tight ends to exploit the middle of the field consistently, and their linebacker coverage has been particularly suspect. With Buffalo likely holding a lead for much of this game, expect plenty of underneath routes and red zone opportunities for Kincaid. His 15.5% target share from last season should translate to solid production against a Miami defense that ranks 11th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends but has shown clear vulnerabilities in coverage.
Devon Achane stands out as the most dynamic offensive weapon in this entire game, regardless of Miami's struggles as a team. The third-year running back has been virtually matchup-proof through two games, averaging 17.3 fantasy points per game despite his team's 0-2 record. His dual-threat ability makes him particularly valuable in PPR formats, as evidenced by his eight catches for 92 yards and a touchdown against New England in Week 2.
What makes Achane a must-start isn't just his talent, but his role in Miami's offense when trailing. The Dolphins have trailed early in both games, immediately putting Achane in catch-up mode where his receiving skills become invaluable. He's accumulated 11 targets through two games and has turned short passes into explosive gains better than even Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Against a Buffalo defense that allowed 40 points to Baltimore in Week 1, there should be plenty of opportunities for Achane to find space underneath and create big plays. His 29-yard receiving touchdown against the Patriots showcased his ability to turn routine catches into game-breaking moments.
Bills-Dolphins Week 3 Sit ‘Em
Tua Tagovailoa presents too many red flags to trust in fantasy lineups, despite favorable matchup metrics on paper. The Dolphins quarterback has shown troubling signs of panic when defenses take away his first read, completing just 3-of-8 passes for 36 yards when holding the ball three seconds or longer in Week 1. His average time to throw increased from 2.37 seconds last season to 2.66 seconds in the season opener, indicating hesitation and indecision in the pocket.
Buffalo's defense, while vulnerable to explosive plays, has proven capable of disguising coverages and creating pressure. The Bills recorded three interceptions and two sacks against the Jets in Week 2, showing their ability to capitalize on quarterback mistakes. Tagovailoa's history of struggling against Buffalo is concerning, as he's thrown multiple interceptions in several recent meetings with the Bills. With Miami's offensive line still dealing with chemistry issues and Buffalo's pass rush getting healthier, Tagovailoa faces a difficult environment on a short week. The combination of a hostile road environment, divisional familiarity, and his own confidence issues make him a risky fantasy play despite his weapons.
Jaylen Waddle represents a classic case of talent being limited by circumstances and matchup. While he managed five catches for 68 yards and a touchdown against New England in Week 2, the underlying metrics suggest regression is coming. Waddle has been running primarily shorter routes as Miami's offense has become more conservative, with his average depth of target dropping significantly from previous seasons.
Buffalo's secondary, despite some injury concerns, has shown the ability to limit big plays when healthy. The Bills defense allowed just 26 yards to Keon Coleman when he faced elite coverage in Week 2, demonstrating their capability to take away preferred targets. Waddle's effectiveness has been directly tied to Tagovailoa's comfort level, and with the quarterback showing signs of panic under pressure, the connection between the two has been inconsistent. Additionally, Waddle played through knee issues last season and may still be working back to full health. In a game where Miami could fall behind early, the Dolphins may be forced into obvious passing situations where Buffalo's defense can pin their ears back and eliminate the intermediate routes that Waddle relies on for consistent production.
