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Is George Kittle ready to drop the boom for his fantasy owners this coming season?
San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle is a productive fantasy football asset. In fact, he averaged 5.6 receptions for 78 yards and 0.35 touchdowns per week following his rookie season (292/3,974/18 on 400 targets), which translates to 15.5 fantasy points in PPR leagues. He has, however, missed 13 games over the last three seasons due to various injuries.
In PPR formats, Kittle placed fourth in tight end scoring last season with 199.0 points. The flip side is he contributed 47.6 percent of that total in only three games (6/101/1, 9/181/2, and 13/151/1). Unfortunately for fantasy managers, he started in only half of San Francisco's games (8.0 fantasy points or fewer). He was also targeted only 32 times in his final seven games (4.6 per week). Keep in mind as well that early in the season, he missed three games due to a calf problem that persisted for the majority of the year. In addition, during the middle of December, he also suffered a knee injury.
Prior to training camp, there haven't been many updates on Kittle's injuries, which can be both good and bad. Experts have chosen to believe this indicates an improvement in his condition. This injury, which he was able to play with for the most part in 2021, has had more than enough time to heal. There is no reason to believe Kittle's mobility will be restricted due to this calf ailment.
.@LombardiHimself has been tracking the 9ers defense this week. He told me the unit has 10 INT in 4 days. On @nflnetwork’s Back Together Saturday I asked @49ers @gkittle46 about the picks, the teams defense and that Trey Lance guy. pic.twitter.com/DVPJ5AwJN3
— Michael Yam (@Mike_Yam) July 31, 2022
George Kittle 2022 Fantasy Football Outlook
George Kittle is the fourth tight end off the board in many early drafts with an average draft position of 52. If Kittle could play the full year, he offers a high upside and plays in a pretty explosive offense. Experts see him as a weekly five-catch player with potential yardage of over 1,100.
In most Fantasy Football, Kittle is actually a top-five tight end. Recall that Kittle caught 78 catches for 1,018 yards and seven touchdowns in 17 games last season, including the playoffs. In the regular season, only Mark Andrews (Baltimore Ravens) and Travis Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs) had more among tight ends. That was mainly under Jimmy Garoppolo's time under center, though. Now, Kittle and the 49ersn are entering the Trey Lance era.
That's a huge consideration. This coming season, pundits worry that with Trey Lance as the quarterback, Kittle won't receive as many targets. In his lone game with Lance during last season, Kittle caught just two of three targets for 21 yards. In spite of this, Kittle's productivity still places him in the top five tight ends in any format.
Trey Lance 🤝 George Kittle 🥵 #49ers
🎥: @49ers pic.twitter.com/AwUH3qaHQn
— Coach Yac 🗣 (@Coach_Yac) July 31, 2022
As for his 2021 injuries, the consensus is these should not affect his fantasy projections in a major way. At the very least, it will be intriguing to watch how he performs in 2022.
As a vote of confidence in George Kittle, the 49ers followed their recent pattern of skipping drafting a receiving tight end in 2022.
Taking all these into account, note that Kittle has great upside. Since his breakthrough in the 2018 season, Kittle has been a top-five tight end despite feeling that his potential was a bit limited.
Remember that in 2018, all tight ends were outdone by Kittle's 1,377 receiving yards. His targets (135), catches (88) and yards per reception (15.6) all set new personal bests. After this breakthrough, however, Kittle's output dwindled.
Still, by no means should anyone belittle a player who has averaged 14–16 points per game over the course of four straight seasons and has never placed lower than fourth. Keep in mind that consistency still reigns supreme among the elite tight ends at this level.
The bottom line, however, is much of Kittle's production will depend on how Trey Lance plays. As Lance takes over at quarterback and launches more planned (and unplanned) runs, there will likely be fewer targets available for Kittle. This is not exactly a death knell for Kittle's fantasy value, but it is a cause of concern. Prospective owners must be aware of this risk. If an owner does draft Kittle, he/she should keep a close watch on how Lance uses Kittle as a receiver.
Looking ahead, even if Kittle won't be the best TE on a weekly basis, he should still give owners consistent production to be competitive. That is what keeps him firmly entrenched in the top five at this time.
