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In the 2021 NFL Draft, the San Francisco 49ers picked Trey Lance third overall. Some have compared him to Lamar Jackson, but Lance lacks his top-end speed and arm power. With Lance's tendency to break the pocket, play with his eyes up, and explode up the field on a run, perhaps Deshaun Watson might actually be a better comparison.
Lance will be put to the test as a passer at the next level and needs more practice reading defenses. As his reads will invite blitzes before a wide receiver breaks loose over the long field, his goal is to beat coverage with his deep throw potential.
Lance had just one NCAA season of starter experience under his belt entering the NFL. In his sophomore year, he didn't throw a single interception while passing for 2,786 yards and getting 28 touchdowns. Lance was also a beast on the ground as well (169/1, 100/14), which paved the way for an exciting NFL career. He entered the draft since North Dakota State canceled the football season in 2020 after just one game due to COVID.
His playing manner meshes perfectly with the 49ers' attack. With a strong running game and an intriguing lineup of tight ends and wide receivers, they want to dominate the line of scrimmage.
During his debut season, he played in six games, accumulating 771 total yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions. He played behind Jimmy Garoppolo last season, but the 49ers are very much his team in 2022.
Trey Lance QB1 loading ⌛️ pic.twitter.com/zqpsdXTm1T
— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) July 30, 2022
Trey Lance’s 2022 fantasy football outlook
Lance possesses a tremendous ceiling as the 49ers' starting QB. In the early NFFC draft season, he was ranked 13th overall. That might actually be a bit of an undervalue for him. With 17 starts, Lance should amass 4,500 total yards and has a strong likelihood of scoring 30 total touchdowns.
Lance is a talented athlete who, in his last collegiate season, ran for 1,100 yards and 14 touchdowns. Kyle Shanahan should help increase the team's overall throwing stats with all those lovely, safe passes from Lance.
Lance may actually be a difference-maker at this position akin to Josh Allen or Jackson thanks to his access to some of the top playmakers in the league and his tremendous running upside.
In some early drafts, Lance has been taken as QB11 off the board. There are elements at play that might work against this ADP, making it interesting. These include things like volume and opportunity.
Recall that the 49ers were among the NFL's slowest teams in 2021, passing the ball much less frequently than is ideal. They averaged 29.6 seconds per snap during neutral game scenarios, which is the second-slowest time among all NFL teams.
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The 49ers' pass rate under these circumstances was just 53 percent, which was tied for the lowest in the league. Overall, the 49ers operated at a 52 percent pass rate (third-slowest) and averaged 28.3 seconds per snap (second lowest).
That pattern should not continue in the coming season as Lance will play a big role in the running game. His mastery of a 41.1 percent share of the carries in Weeks 4-5 of last season made this clear. He ran the ball 7, 16, and 8 times, averaging 53.6 running yards per game in games through Week 16. Before we even consider the possibility of him grabbing a few goal-line carries, that's already an additional five points every game.
#49ers QB Trey Lance showcased some more of his mobility for the smooth red zone rushing TD 🙌🏼 pic.twitter.com/hAzzn0PKO3
— OurSF49ers (@OurSf49ers) August 2, 2022
Prospective fantasy managers should always look for efficiency, especially from Lance himself. Here, Lance can at least point to productive connections with prime 49ers passing game targets.
On 23 targets last season, Lance averaged a staggering 12.5 adjusted yards per attempt when going after Deebo Samuel. Meanwhile, his connection with Brandon Aiyuk yielded an average of 9.7 yards per attempt.
Lance, however, needs to connect more with TE George Kittle. Kittle saw an average of 6.5 targets per game in the three games when Lance played major minutes. In these same games, Kittle only averaged 2.5 catches and 34.5 yards, too. In contrast, he averaged 5.5 catches, 70.1 yards, and 12.7 fantasy points over the course of the other contests.
There is enough evidence to suggest that Lance can be a successful fantasy performer. Keep in mind, though, that the 49ers' offense is unlikely to resemble the Greatest Show on Turf.
Lance won't be the league's top passer, but he should rank among the league's top quarterback rushers. This should enable him to completely justify his current ADP and, for the first time in more than five years, get us excited about the fantasy possibilities of a 49ers quarterback.
