Martin Necas' name popped up wherever you looked in trade rumors this offseason, but the Carolina Hurricanes decided to sign him to a two-year contract extension. The deal will pay Necas $6.5 million per season, which could be seen as an overpay for a player with one breakout season over the last five. The extension doesn't mean the Hurricanes won't still honor his trade request, but they hope to keep him in the organization.
Necas was a star for the Hurricanes in 2022-23, recording 71 points after three straight seasons of approximately 40. It was a career-high for Necas before regressing to 53 points in the 2023-24 season. Necas attributed the lack of production to a reduced role, which became more severe after the Hurricanes acquired Jake Guentzel.
However, Necas stepped up in the playoffs and tallied nine points in 11 games. Despite the results, he still wished to get a fresh start for the 2024-25 season and played hardball with the Hurricanes over a contract extension. The two parties agreed to an extension to keep Necas in Carolina, but everyone's concern now is whether he will still be there for the start of the regular season.
The Hurricanes could still trade Necas now that he is under control for the next two seasons. It would eliminate the need for the acquiring team to negotiate a deal. However, the Hurricanes have the cap space to keep Necas on the team, as they have over $9 million left to complete Seth Jarvis' deal.
The fact they were able to negotiate a deal makes it look like the relationship is semi-repaired and Necas will be a Hurricane for the next two years.
Martin Necas' unrestricted free-agent rights
The good thing about this Necas saga was the Hurricanes still had his restricted free agency rights. Regardless of how much Necas wanted to leave, he was still two years away from being an unrestricted free agent. The Hurricanes could hold on to his rights, and even if a team offer sheeted him, they still had the option to match.
The problem with this contract for the Hurricanes is if they don't mend the relationship, Necas will walk after the 2025-26 season. Carolina has two years to negotiate a long-term deal with the Czechia-born forward or lose him for nothing.
It rarely works out for teams signing deals like this, as the players want to test the market. Even if they mend the relationship, Necas will likely still want to see what he can get from other teams before committing to the Hurricanes.
Did the Hurricanes overpay?
Six forwards made between $6.4 and $6.6 million annually in 2023-24. The early reactions to the signings were that the Hurricanes overpaid for two years of Necas, but he is in the middle of the pack amongst those six forwards. Three players had more points than Necas, with Brandon Hagel and Chris Kreider leading the pack with 75 points each. Claude Giroux was the other forward ahead of Necas, with 64 points in 82 games.
Brayden Schenn, Tom Wilson, and Brendan Gallagher are three players making $6.5 million with fewer points than Necas' 53. Schenn had 46 points, while Wilson and Gallagher disappointed with 35 and 31 respectively.
If you expand the list of forwards to players making between $6 million and $7 million, Necas is in the middle of the pack in 15th out of 25 forwards. It may not be the greatest value someone has got on a contract, but the dollar value is adequate.
New Hurricanes general manager Eric Tulsky prides himself on an analytical approach, which makes the contract a bit surprising. It isn't exactly a “Moneyball” style contract that people expected the Hurricanes to start signing with Tulsky in charge.
Guentzel's absence creates opportunity for Necas
Much of the trade talks surrounding Necas acted under the assumption that they'd find a way to re-sign Jake Guentzel. When the Tampa Bay Lightning acquired Guentzel's rights at the draft, the probability of Necas staying in Carolina improved dramatically.
Necas was unhappy with his usage last season, but there should be more opportunities with Guentzel's spot on the wing opened up. The Hurricanes will need to find a way to replace Guentzel's 25 points in 17 regular season games for them last season. He also had nine points in 11 postseason games, the same production as Necas.
It could be a lofty goal for Necas to average more than a point per game like Guentzel last season. However, if they had lost both, it'd be a deep hole for Carolina's offense to try and climb out of.
Hurricanes Grade: C-
Martin Necas Grade: A-
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