The Atlanta Hawks have found themselves in a bit of flux as of late. There have been reports detailing the turmoil in the Hawks front office, which led to a shakeup in their leadership ranks. This kind of uncertainty is all fine and dandy if the Hawks were one of the best teams in the NBA, but they're not. More than halfway through the season, the Hawks are barely above .500 with a 25-24 record even after their Wednesday night victory against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The acquisition of Dejounte Murray, while not the worst move in the world, has not been the game-changing move the Hawks hoped it would be after trading away three first-rounders in exchange for the 2022 All-Star. The backcourt of Trae Young and Murray has had its moments, but it's clear that there is a bit of skill overlap between the two, and that they don't necessarily complement each other's play styles in an ideal manner.
Moreover, the addition of Murray has further relegated John Collins down the Hawks pecking order. A decline in usage usually means an uptick in efficiency (with the opposite being true); however, a decline in usage led to a drop-off for Collins in the shooting percentage department as well. In fact, he is currently posting the worst true shooting percentage of his career following a precipitous drop-off in his three-point percentage.
Not only will Collins' decline hamper the Hawks on the court, this also has the potential to affect their position in the trade market. And with the NBA trade deadline approaching, the Hawks should be dreading trading a once-valued asset in Collins for a measly return.
Hawks' nightmare scenario: John Collins is traded for scraps
John Collins' availability on the trade market is one of the worst-kept secrets in the NBA. In fact, it's hard to fathom a time where the athletic 6'9 forward out of Wake Forest was not available for trade. For one reason or another, the Hawks just have not been sold on Collins as a second star alongside Trae Young, and as a result, trade talks for the 25-year old forward appear to be reaching their boiling point.
In only his third season in the NBA, Collins had future star written all over him. It's not often that a 22-year old forward averages 21.6 points and 10.1 rebounds on 65.9 percent true shooting. Such level of production requires talent, and it was evident that Collins had that in spades.
Never mind that the Hawks were bad during that year – fans around the league were viewing John Collins as the next coming of Amar'e Stoudemire due to how aggressively he attacked the rim combined with his burgeoning face-up game.
However, just as the Hawks were beginning their ascent, Collins' game stagnated. The addition of Clint Capela was necessary for the Hawks to shore up their leaky defense, but Collins' game took a hit, and his value, as a result, has taken a turn for the worse. His decline in output this year has been in the works for three seasons now, which means that his trade value is currently at its lowest.
And if the Hawks decide to sell low on him, that may very well be the gravest mistake they can make.
Sure, a change of scenario could end up being what's best for both John Collins and the Hawks. Collins could, perhaps, return to form in a team that puts him in a more featured role. For example, if the Indiana Pacers (reportedly interested in Collins) pair him up with Myles Turner, it's easy to envision Collins returning to his 2019-20 levels with Tyrese Haliburton feeding him easy buckets.
Meanwhile, the Hawks could gain more depth on the wing, as well as improve their outside marksmanship as a team by dealing away their longtime power forward.
However, the Hawks don't appear to be in a position to be making rash decisions as well as win-now moves. There's not quite a realistic move for the Hawks to make that turns them into championship contenders. That may sound like unnecessary shade, but it's true: the Hawks rank 22nd in net rating, as their opponents outscore them by 0.7 points per 100 possessions. A cursory glance at that statistic dictates that the Hawks aren't even a convincing playoff team, much less a contender.
It's unclear if Collins is capable of turning his Hawks career around. In addition, it's also unclear if the Hawks have the patience to wait for Collins to snap out of the worst season of his career outside of his rookie campaign. With the Hawks out a few picks due to the Dejounte Murray trade, they may want to expedite their contending timeline to the best of their ability.
But therein lies a double-edged sword. The Hawks' lack of picks should make them more wary of selling low on someone that should feasibly net them useful assets as they try to put a winning team around Trae Young.
Trading away John Collins might be inevitable for the Hawks. But they should at least wait for better timing than the upcoming NBA trade deadline to pull the trigger, especially with Collins still locked into a long-term contract in Atlanta.
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