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The Atlanta Hawks are set to face the Miami Heat in the first round of the 2022 NBA Playoffs. Even though they had a tough year, the Hawks beat the Hornets and then the Cavaliers to reach the playoffs. Trae Young has been fantastic, but he was also supported by his teammates. Most notably, it was a barrage of three-pointers versus the Hornets, where the Hawks struck 16 of 32 from behind the arc. Now, they will be facing the first-seeded Heat and it will be a tough matchup. They will need all of their guys to perform, but the Hawks will primarily need their X-Factor to put on a good series, and it is not Trae Young.
Hawks' X-Factor versus Heat
Young is not the X-Factor of this series simply because he will perform no matter what. Of course, the Heat will do their best to neutralize the Hawks' superstar, but he has become so good lately that no defense can really stop him. However, Young cannot do it alone, so he will need all the help he can get. There are a couple of guys that could be the X-factor. One could be John Collins, who will need to seriously step up in the absence of Clint Capela, who is reportedly out for at least a week. One could also be Bogdan Bogdanovic, who hit 19 points off the bench in their close win versus the Cavs. They are both good picks, but the most important player, apart from Trae Young, will be Danilo Gallinari.
There are a few reasons why Gallo, as he is known, is so important for the Hawks. Firstly, in the absence of Capela, the Hawks are really bleeding at their frontcourt positions. Collins is there, that is correct, but apart from him, they only really have Onyeka Okongwu from the bench. He is solid, but he is not the type of player that the Hawks can really expect a huge step forward from. Gorgui Dieng is also there and he did play around five minutes versus the Cavs, but he is past his best NBA years, so it will be difficult to expect a ton from him. Gallinari is perfect in this scenario, partly because he is a matchup nightmare.
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The fact that he is a nightmare matchup is the second reason why he could be instrumental in the Hawks' effort to win this series. Standing at six-foot-ten, he is fairly tall and could play the center position in some small-ball lineups. However, he is also a fairly good outside shooter, meaning that if he is playing center, Heat's Bam Adebayo will need to make a decision whether to step outside and guard the three-point shot, or remain in the middle and try to swat shots of driving Hawks guards. That scenario of Adebayo or anyone else guarding Gallinari is only possible if he is hitting his shots. Against the Hornets, he shot 7/12 and had a fairly good game, but he then followed that up with a 4/13 performance against the Cavs. He needs to remain a consistent threat.
With all the other guys mentioned above, the Heat can plan effectively for them and do not have to worry too much. The Heat's opponents this year shot the second-worst percentage on three-point shots this year, despite them allowing a ton of shots per game, where they are ranked 27th in the league. Thus, the Hawks, a predominantly three-point shooting team, need to figure out how to dissolve that defense and find their opportunities. It can be by drives, obviously, but for that to happen, they need to get Bam Adebayo out of the middle. If Gallo can make his shots and force either Adebayo to step out or some broken rotations of the Heat's defense, that is their chance each time down the basket.
Gallinari has not had a good year in the regular season. After he arrived from the Thunder two seasons ago, he played well last season, averaging 13,3 points on 40% shooting from three. In the playoffs, he kept up the percentage and hit around two threes per game. This season, however, he lost some of his efficiency and had his worst year offensively since 2009, his rookie year as part of the Knicks. While asking Gallinari to be that player who averages 18-19 points per game is too much, all the Hawks really need him to do is hit his shots. If he can do that and Trae Young keeps being Trae Young, the Hawks have a living chance in this series.
