With Wimbledon now in the backseat, the attention turns to the hard-court season where Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic will continue to battle it out to not only win the US Open, but to go one step closer to ending 2023 as the World No. 1.

As things stand, Alcaraz remains the top-ranked player in the ATP rankings and his win over Djokovic in the SW19 final saw him slightly increase his lead over the No. 2. However, as aforementioned, there is a scenario where Djokovic could overtake the Spaniard in the rankings even before the US Open takes place.

So with that said, in this article, we will look at how Carlos Alcaraz could remain World No. 1 over Novak Djokovic ahead of the final Grand Slam of the year in the US Open.

Before we get started, here's a quick reminder of the current ATP rankings as things stands:

  1. Carlos Alcaraz – 9,375 points
  2. Novak Djokovic – 8,795 points

Why can Novak Djokovic overtake Carlos Alcaraz?

In case you may have forgotten, Djokovic did not compete in any North American event last year owing to his vaccination status. That means he missed tournaments like the Canadian Open, Cincinnati Open and of course, the US Open. However, with the vaccination mandates now over, the Serbian superstar will be back in front of North American fans this year.

As a result, this means Djokovic has plenty of points to earn with no need to defend any unlike Alcaraz.

How many points is Carlos Alcaraz defending?

Alcaraz won his first-ever Grand Slam at the US Open last year. That means he has 2,000 points to defend and even if he finishes as a runner-up this year, he will drop 800 points, which as things stand, would see him fall below Djokovic even if the latter doesn't compete in Flushing Meadows. However, the US Open is not the only event Alcaraz is defending points from.

Alcaraz has already dropped points by choosing not to defend his 300 points at the Hamburg European Open and will lose another 150 points by skipping the Croatia Open. That means the 20-year-old will have 9,225 ranking points — 430 ahead of Djokovic — going into the North American events.

He went out in the second round at the Canadian Open last year so he only has 10 points to defend in Toronto while in Cincinnati, Alcaraz will have 180 points to defend.

How many points will Carlos Alcaraz need to remain No. 1 prior to the US Open?

There is some good news for Alcaraz, however. Djokovic recently announced he wouldn't be competing at the Canadian Open and given that Alcaraz only made it to the second round last year, he'll earn his 10 points back simply by entering the tournament this year.

So in essence, Alcaraz needs to have at least a 1,180-point lead over Djokovic prior to Cincinnati to be assured of the No. 1 ranking at the US Open where he'll be the top seed as a result. That means Alcaraz has to emerge victorious in Toronto to earn 1,000 points to further improve his current 430-point lead to 1,430.

Coming in at second would earn him 600 points, but that would just take his lead to 1,030 — which means Djokovic could overtake him if he wins the Cincinnati Open and Alcaraz fails to reach the quarterfinals. However, if Djokovic were to win the event, Alcaraz could also remain top if he finishes second in Toronto provided he makes it to the semifinals in Cincinnati.

What if Carlos Alcaraz exits early on in Toronto and Cincinnati?

In another scenario, let's assume Alcaraz exits the Canadian Open and Cincinnati Open early on. If the Spaniard goes out in Toronto in the quarterfinal stage, he'll earn 180 points. And should he fail to reach the quarterfinals in Cincinnati, he'll lose 180 points effectively keeping his current lead of 430 points the same.

If Djokovic wins in Cincinnati, he'll not only earn 1,000 points and overtake Alcaraz in the ATP rankings to have a 570-point lead, but he'll also enter Flushing Meadows as the top seed. This, in turn, also means that even if Alcaraz were to defend his US Open title and take his Grand Slam tally to three, he'd still be 570 points behind the 23-time Grand Slam winner.

That said, even if Alcaraz has a 1,430-point lead over Djokovic going into the US Open, the latter will overtake him in the rankings if he wins the final Grand Slam of the year and the Spaniard doesn't make it to the final four.

Conclusion

So what it all boils down to is simple — Alcaraz simply needs to win the Canadian Open to assure himself of World No. 1 and entering the US Open as the top seed. He could certainly help matters by winning in Cincinnati as well, but this is the bare minimum that he will need.