The World Cup moves at a frantic pace, and despite it just starting up a week ago, there are already teams who are bowing out of the competition after just two games. The USMNT are not one of those teams, but they are running the risk of failing to make it out of the group stage given the current standings in their group.
While USA has looked good in their first two games, they haven't managed to pick up a win just yet. They very nearly did against Wales, but ended up settling for a 1-1 draw instead, and then battled to a 0-0 draw against an England team that was expected to dominate them. That's great and all, but it has made America's task in their third and final group stage match much more difficult.
The USMNT will be taking on Iran in their final group stage match, and it will be an interesting contest against a team that has had an uneven start to the tournament. Iran was destroyed 6-2 by England, but pulled off a huge 2-0 win over Wales to put themselves in second place in Group B for the time being. So with the game drawing near, let's see what needs to happen in order for America to advance to the knockout stages.
How the USMNT can advance to the knockout stages
With each team in Group B having played two games, the standings are looking to be rather neat and tidy. England is leading the way with four points, Iran is second with three points, USA is third with two points, and Wales in last with one point. The top two teams will advance to the Round of 16, meaning American is going to have to gain a point on Iran in their match against them.
The only way to do that at this point is to win. If the USMNT loses or draws against Iran, they will be eliminated from the tournament right then and there. If the USA draws this match, they would gain a point, but so would Iran, meaning America would have three but Iran would have four. A loss would keep America at two while pushing Iran to six.
That may seem like a dire situation for the USMNT, but they should be favored to beat Iran. The problem is that, depending on the outcome of England's game against Wales, Iran may only need a draw to advance, which could make it tougher for American to pry a win away from Iran. They may be favored, but Iran cannot be taken lightly in this one.
Advancing to the knockout stages is one thing, but getting a favorable matchup is another thing. USA could technically still win Group B, but it's highly unlikely to happen. In order for that to happen, they would need England to lose their final game to Wales in addition to beating Iran. Considering the state of Wales, though, that likely won't happen.
Many folks are expecting England to beat Wales, and for good reason, but if Wales beats England, things get a bit hairier for the entirety of Group B. Regardless of what happens with England and Wales, the USMNT will need to beat Iran if they want to move onto the Round of 16. But the outcome of that game, which both teams will know prior to kickoff, could drastically change how this game is played.
Chances are Wales will lose or draw, but if they beat England, that changes everything for Iran. Both sides have a goal differential of -2 right now, which is only important if they both finish with the same amount of points. If Wales wins, that would force Iran to pursue a victory, because if they tie, both sides would have four points, but Iran would get knocked out due to goal differential (Wales goal differential would improve by at least one goal with a win, while Iran's would stay at -2 in a draw.)
If this happens, it could inadvertently make things easier for USA because Iran would be forced to actually try to win the game. Rather than playing for a draw, Iran would have to play to win, and while that may sound like it makes things harder for the USMNT, if Iran isn't parking the bus all game, there will be more room for a more talented American side to win.
The best case scenario for USA would be to beat Iran and then see Wales beat England by six goals to knock England out of the tournament, but that is not going to happen. The USMNT controls their own fate here, and if they win, they will move on. But anything less than a win would be catastrophic, making the stakes in this contest very very high.
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