A trip to the Final Four in Glendale, Arizona is on the line as Illinois faced UConn. It is time to continue our College Basketball odds series with an Illinois-UConn prediction, pick, and how-to watch.
After a solid first weekend of the tournament for Illinois, the Illini faced Iowa State in the Sweet Sixteen. There was a tight first half against Morehead State, but they would win by 16 and then beat Duquesne by 26. It was a solid game for Illinois against Iowa State. They took a ten-point lead into the half, but Iowa State would make it close. Iowa State got within three points multiple times, including in the final minutes of the game, but could not tie it up. This would result in a 72-69 win for Illinois.
Meanwhile, UConn dominated the first weekend of the tournament. They started with the 16-seed Stetson. After leading at half 52-19, UConn would hold onto the large lead through the second half. UConn won 91-52 over Stetson. In the second round, they would face Northwestern. Once again, UConn built an impressive first-half lead. They lead Northwestern 40-18 at the halfway mark of the game. While Northwestern would have a better second half, they would not be able to make a comeback, with UConn winning 75-58. UConn continued domination over a fifth-seeded San Diego State. This was the closest game they had, with the game still tied after the first five minutes of play, and UConn leading by just nine at the half. From there, UConn would take over. They would go on a second-half 14-1 run to build their lead and would win the game 82-52.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
March Madness Odds: Illinois-UConn Odds
Illinois: +8.5 (-115)
Moneyline: +290
UConn: 8.5 (-105)
Moneyline: -375
Over: 154.5 (-110)
Under: 154.5 (-110)
How to Watch March Madness
Time: 6:09 PM ET/ 3;09 PM PT
TV: TBS
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Illinois Will Cover The Spread/Win
Illinois ranks tenth in adjusted efficiency in KenPom rankings, sitting second in adjusted offensive efficiency and 84th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They are eighth in points per game this year while sitting 14th in field goals made per game this year. Terrence Shannon Jr. has been solid this year. He leads the team with 23.5 points per game of the year while shooting 48.3 percent from the field. Further, Marcus Domask has been good as well. He has 15.8 points per game this year while adding in 4.0 assists per game, the most on the team. Rounding out the top scorers is Coleman Hawkins. Hawkins comes in with 12.3 points per game this year.
What has been special about this Illinois team is the rebounding this year, they are fifth in the nation in rebounds per game. They are 15th in the nation in defensive rebounds per game while sitting 15th in the nation in offensive rebounds per game this year. Quincy Guerrier shines here. He comes in with 6.2 rebounds per game, helping his 9.6 points per game. Hawkins comes in rebounding well with 6.1 rebounds per game, while Ty Rodgers comes in with 5.4 rebounds per game.
On defense, Illinois is 200th in the nation in opponent points per game, while sitting 44th in opponent effective field goal percentage. Hawkins leads the team with 1.5 steals per game this year while having 1.1 blocks per game this year. Meanwhile, Shannon has a steal per game and just under one block per game this year.
Why UConn Will Cover The Spread/Win
UConn comes in ranked first in KenPom's adjusted ratings this year. They are first in adjusted offensive efficiency this year while sitting sixth in adjusted defensive efficiency. They are 17th in the nation in points per game this year while sitting seventh in the nation in effective field goal percentage. UConn has been a great shooting team inside the arc, sitting fourth in the nation in two-point field goal percentage this year.
UConn has been led by the combination of Cam Spencer, Alex Karaban, and Tristen Newton this year. Newton leads the way this year with 15.3 points per game this year. He is shooting the worst of the group though, shooing just 42.1 percent. He does lead the team in assists, coming in with 6.1 per game. Spencer comes in with 14.5 points per game this year. He is shooting 48.8 percent from the field. Finally, Karaban has 13.6 points per game this year, while also shooting 49.5 percent from the field.
UConn sits 27th in the nation in rebounds per game, but they are 11th in the nation in offensive rebound percentage while sitting 35th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage this year. This is led by Donovan Cligan, who comes in with 7.4 rebounds per game. He also has over two offensive rebounds per game this year. Meanwhile., Tristen Newton comes in with 6.8 rebounds per game this year, while being great on the defensive end. UConn also has three other players with over 4.5 rebounds per game this year.
On defense, UConn is sixth in the nation in points against per game this year. They sit third in opponent effective field goal percentage this year as well. UConn forces people into the middle, where one of their big men often causes difficult shots this year. They are ninth in the nation in blocks this year and sixth in block percentage this year. Clingan leads the way here with 2.4 blocks per game this year, while Samson Johnson adds .9 blocks per game. Further, Cam Spencer has 1.4 steals per game this year.
Final Illinois-UConn Prediction & Pick
UConn has been dominant so far in the tournament. There are going to be some differences in this game though. First, Illinois has one of the best offensive units in the nation, and no one UConn has faced so far is close to that. Second, Illinois plays with a very fast tempo, that is different than what has been seen for UConn before. Finally, Illinois rebounds better than any other team that UConn has faced before. Illinois will be able to keep this game close for most of the game. Still, UConn has more debt and could easily pull away. That makes the best play in this game not on the spread, but on the total. Take the over in this one.
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Final Illinois-UConn Prediction & Pick: Over 154.5 (-110)
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