Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor has thrown a wrench into fantasy football drafts everywhere after the Colts failed to find a suitable trade for the star tailback and placed him on the PUP list. Taylor will be out at least the first four games on the season for the Colts, and could potentially miss the entire season if his contract holdout carries on throughout the year.

The certainty of Taylor's absence early on (and uncertainty for the rest of the year) creates an interesting dilemma for fantasy football players. Where do you draft someone who might not take a snap all year? At what point in your draft is the risk worth the reward?

We're here to help answer that question, using the latest ADP  to identify where to draft Jonathan Taylor for the 2023 season in fantasy football.

Jonathan Taylor's latest ADP

Taylor seems to be falling into the 7th round of the latest fantasy football drafts (8/29 and beyond) after the Tuesday deadline for a trade passed without Taylor being moved.

Going in the 7th round is a substantial drop for Taylor, who was regularly going in the second round earlier this offseason in that format. The FFPC Main Event is a good place to gauge Taylor's expected future draft position, as the entry fee for those leagues is $2000 and eliminates some of the “auto-drafting” that will be baked into other ADP from different contests where the stakes are lower.

Taylor is going to be a common “auto-pick” in leagues quite often, but you can understand pulling the trigger on him when he reaches the 7th round. Taylor was the RB1 in fantasy football just two short years ago, and even though he's recovering from offseason ankle surgery, one would assume he would be ready to play if he was able to secure a contract. It seems possible that Taylor could return after the first four weeks, and put up RB1-type numbers for the rest of the season. That would be a steal in the 7th round.

 

Taylor's murky contract situation

What makes Taylor's situation tricky is that he might not return to the field at all. Indianapolis seems unlikely to give Taylor the long-term, big-dollar contract he's likely seeking, mainly because the Colts aren't realistically competing this year with a rookie quarterback in Anthony Richardson. Colts general manager was recently asked why the team isn't paying Taylor, and he had a very blunt response.

“We won four games last year,” Chris Ballard said, according to Ari Meirov of The 33rd Team.

The play from the Colts appears to be to wait Taylor out, and see if he ends his “hold-in.” If he doesn't return in Week 5, and the team deems him healthy to play, the issue could be taken up with the league and the players union. That could get ugly pretty quickly.

Taylor appears to be digging in, and he'll receive the first four game checks of his salary worth $4.3 million this season while on the PUP list. It's when the Colts take him off the PUP is when things will get interesting.

It's possible the Colts find a trade for Taylor in the next few weeks, but this has come to the point where it wouldn't be surprising to see Taylor sit out the whole year, similar to how Le'Veon Bell sat out the entire 2018 season over a contract dispute.

What's probably most likely is that Taylor comes back at some point during the season, is listed on the active roster with full-play status for at least six games to accrue a full-service year, and then leaves this offseason in free agency with less miles on the odometer than he would have after a full season.

 

Where should Taylor be drafted?

Now that we have an idea where Jonathan Taylor's ADP is in fantasy football drafts (roughly 7th round), we can ask ourselves where he should be drafted.

Could you get enough value from Taylor in a shortened season with a 7th-round pick? Absolutely. But taking Taylor over starting running backs in great offenses like Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco or Buffalo Bills running back James Cook is too rich given all the uncertainty of where and when Taylor will be playing next. Running backs aren't a safe proposition in the first place, but Taylor should be drafted at a point where you're not necessarily relying on him as a starter (RB3/Flex), which would likely be more toward the 8th round.

It's usually wise to buy the dip in these situations, but Taylor's “hold-in” isn't looking easily resolved, and we know he's missing at least the first four games. If the top options available on your draft board are a backend TE1 or QB1 and Taylor is still on the board, it makes sense to take Taylor and wait for your next turn to keep building your roster at those spots. But if there's a talented receiver like Brandon Aiyuk or Diontae Johnson or one of the aforementioned backs, taking the “sure” thing at receiver is a better play than risking it with Taylor, who seems to be in no rush to get back on the field.