Justin Verlander is in the midst of another otherworldly season. The Houston Astros' ageless wonder is bouncing back from Tommy John surgery in a major way. The 2022 AL Cy Young Award is well within reach.
This season, Verlander leads all pitchers with a 1.84 ERA in 152.0 innings pitched. Armed with a four-seam fastball that is still one of the best in the game and strong secondary pitches, the veteran is making mincemeat of opposing hitters in his 17th season on the mound. He has been the leader of the American League's top record holder and headlines a stacked pitching rotation.
But is Verlander's season better than that of Dylan Cease? The Chicago White Sox ace is having a masterful season. His gorgeous curveball and unhittable slider have made batters look foolish all year long and he is fourth in strikeout percentage with 31.6 percent.
The 39-year-old Astros star has been slowed down with a calf injury but has put together a marvelous season nonetheless. Even with Cease putting together a great season, this is not his year to take home the award. Here are two key reasons why you should expect Justin Verlander to pad his Hall of Fame resumé with a third Cy Young Award.
2. Command of the strike zone
Although Dylan Cease is a strikeout wizard with some of the nastiest stuff in the game, he has one key weakness in his game that Justin Verlander doesn't. Cease has allowed 66 allowed walks this season. His 10.1 walk percentage leads all qualified pitchers and he is the only one to cross the 10 threshold. Although his incredible strikeout percentage has allowed him to dominate, it is still a big flaw in his pitching philosophy.
Meanwhile, Verlander has allowed just 26 free passes this season and has a 4.5 percent walk rate. He has struck batters out at a 26.5 percent rate, giving him a walk-to-strikeout ratio of 5.92 while Cease is at a meager 3.12. Having more well-rounded production will work heavily in the Houston star's favor.
Cease's profile contains the extremes of being a wicked strikeout artist and a brutal base-on-ball purveyor. Since so many other players are able to generate tons of K's without walking so many batters, it will likely be a detriment to his Cy Young case. Verlander has been great at striking batters out and preventing walks, giving him a leg up in the award race.
1. Verlander has the superior ERA
Despite all the advanced metrics out there, ERA is still the first stat most baseball fans go to for pitching. Justin Verlander has a big lead in that stat and it will serve as the biggest piece of evidence in his Cy Young case.
Verlander's 1.84 ERA leads MLB by a strong margin. Cease, at 2.06, is still second in baseball. However, the last four Cy Young winners each led their league in ERA. There were other factors that made them deserving winners but the trend is clear. Even when adjusted for the league-average run environment, Verlander comes out on top with a 208 ERA+. Cease is again second at 193.
Verlander's ERA lead is quite big and he also has a very impressive WHIP. The Astros star allows just 0.855 walks/hits per innings pitched. Tampa Bay Rays fireballer Shane McClanahan is second with 0.862 and no other pitcher is below 0.9 this season. Cease's is 1.068, a mark that is solid but nowhere near that of Verlander's.
It remains to be seen if Justin Verlander will maintain his leads in these stats when he returns from injury. But the fact that he has reached this level of performance should not be lost on voters even if he has a rusty start or two after being on the IL. The Astros star has been a cut above the rest of the field and is the most deserving candidate to win a Cy Young Award.
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