The Miami Heat were unable to sweep the Boston Celtics in Game 4 of their Eastern Conference Finals series, but they have given themselves enough of a cushion in this series where it shouldn't be much of an issue. The series will now shift back to Boston for Game 5, so with another chance to close out the C's, let's run through our Heat predictions for this game.
The Heat got off to a good start in Game 4, holding a six-point lead at halftime, but ended up losing the second half 66-43 as the Celtics came to life. Whereas the C's supporting cast finally found their shooting shoes after an ice cold start to the series, the Heat took a step back, with key contributors such as Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent, and Duncan Robinson all having quiet nights.
Luckily for the Heat, they still have a 3-1 series lead over the Celtics, which gives them a bit of wiggle room to work with as they try to put the finishing touches on this series. However, you cannot pass up opportunities to put talented teams to rest, and the Celtics have the talent to make things interesting if the Heat let them. So with that in mind, let's look at our predictions for the Heat in Game 5.
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3. The Heat put more defensive pressure on the Celtics perimeter offense
We already mentioned how the Celtics finally woke up from their slumber when it comes to hitting shots from behind the arc in Game 4, and that may end up being the determining factor in who wins Game 5. Boston shot 40 percent behind the arc in Game 4, but in Games 1-3, they combined to shoot just 29.8 percent on their threes.
For the most part, the Celtics were missing a lot of shots they should have been hitting, so Miami can't necessarily expect them to regress back to that figure in Game 5. They can, however, turn up the dial when it comes to pressuring them at the perimeter in a way they were doing earlier in this series. The Heat were able to win Games 1 & 2 because they were forcing Boston off the three-point line and sending them into the paint.
Boston was hitting their inside shots, but it didn't matter because their three-point shooting was abysmal. Putting more of an emphasis on limiting outside shots and cutting passing lanes at the perimeter will likely slow down Boston's offense, and as we have seen throughout this series, when their offense gets bogged down by the Heat's defense, good things will happen for Miami.
2. The Heat get 35 points from Jimmy Butler
While Jimmy Butler has gotten a ton of credit for the Heat's success, and rightfully so, he hasn't exactly been the main reason for Miami jumping out to a 3-1 series lead over Boston. That would be due in large part to the Heat's supporting cast, who have been shooting lights out from all over the floor around Butler. Butler has been playing quite well either way (26.8 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 6 APG, 45.2 FG%) but without the help he's getting from his teammates, they wouldn't be leading this series.
Again, we mentioned how the Heat's scorching hot supporting cast cooled off a bit in Game 4, which was a bit of a concern for Miami. Butler had a 29 points outing, but he wasn't overly efficient from the field, hitting just nine of his 21 shots, and while he kept the Heat in this game, it wasn't enough to overcome a well-rounded Boston effort.
Miami's supporting cast may find their shot again in Game 5, but Butler likely isn't going to take any chances. We all know this guy is as tough of a competitor as there is, and chances are he doesn't want to head back to Miami for Game 6. Expect Butler to be aggressive in finding his shot early in this game, and when all is said and done, he will finish with his second 35-point outing of the series.
1. The Heat will beat the Celtics 116-111 to advance to the NBA Finals
Do the Heat have reason to be worried after losing Game 4? A little bit, yes, but the Celtics have proven themselves to be a wildly inconsistent team all season long, while the Heat are pretty much the exact opposite. Boston has the talent to reel off three more wins, but Miami only needs one more win, and they are the masters at grinding out wins when you don't expect them to.
Boston returning to TD Garden may feel like an inherent advantage, but they haven't been all that good on their home court this season, and that could continue in Game 5. Butler will be getting whatever he wants on offense, and even without consistent contributions from his supporting cast, it will be enough to get by in this one.
The battle that will determine this game is between Boston's offense and Miami's defense. Erik Spoelstra is going to make some changes after Jayson Tatum was in complete control in Game 4, and we just haven't seen enough from the Celtics that suggests they are capable of overcoming the wrinkles Spoelstra throws at them. Expect another fourth quarter rally from the Heat, as they put the C's away 116-111 to advance to the NBA Finals.
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