The Miami Heat took the first blow in the 2023 NBA Finals as the Denver Nuggets dominated with a 104-93 win in Game 1. The Heat were simply outclassed by Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets, who showcased a masterful and efficient offensive game plan to take the series opener. Ahead of Sunday night's showdown, we will be making our Heat Finals Game 2 predictions.
Game 1 was a forgettable outing for the Heat, who shot just 40 percent from the field. Bam Adebayo led all Heat scorers with 25 points along with 13 rebounds on Thursday night. Gabe Vincent also had a strong outing with 19 points and five 3-pointers. Miami, however, missed the elite production of Jimmy Butler, who finished with just 13 points on 6-of-14 shooting.
Miami should just chuck Game 1 into the garbage bin and quickly shift its focus for Game 2. As the road team, the Heat really only need to win one of the first two games to steal home-court advantage. They have a massive chance to do that, especially with the adjustments they can still make ahead of Sunday's game. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra is one of the best in making game-to-game adjustments. With a couple days off, Miami should have a better game plan prepared prior to Game 2.
With that said, here are three bold Heat predictions for Game 2.
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1. Max Strus and Caleb Martin will bounce back from horrendous Game 1 performance
Max Strus and Caleb Martin had one of the worst shooting performances by a duo of teammates in an NBA Finals game in Game 1. The two shot a combined 1-of-17 from the field. Strus went 0-of-10 overall and bricked all of his nine attempts from long distance. Meanwhile, Martin missed his first six shots from the field after converting on his seventh and final attempt, a left-wing 3-pointer, late in the third quarter. With their horrendous combined shooting clip, they tied the worst field-goal percentage by two teammates who started a game since starters were tracked. Ray Allen and Kendrick Perkins was the other duo, with the former going 0-of-13 from the field in their Finals game in 2010.
Caleb Martin (1-7) & Max Strus (0-10) combined to go 1 for 17 from field in Game 1 (5.9%). That's tied for the worst FG pct in NBA Finals by 2 teammates who started a game since starters were tracked in 1970-71. Via @ESPNStatsInfo
— Jorge Sedano (@Sedano) June 2, 2023
With their historically horrific shooting night, we predict Strus and Martin to bounce back and find their shooting stroke for Game 2. The Heat were likely fatigued following their grueling series versus the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. Plus, the altitude in Denver is apparently a real thing. Also, Finals jitters might have gotten to the two debutants.
With one game under their belt, Strus and Martin should be over those jitters and put together a better offensive performance in Game 2. Strus isn't going to go 0-of-10 again and miss all of his 3-point shot attempts, especially considering at least seven of them were open or wide-open looks.
Martin was particularly on fire throughout the Heat-Celtics ECF. He averaged 19.3 points on over 60 percent field-goal shooting and nearly 49 percent 3-point shooting in that seven-game bloodbath.
2. Playoff Jimmy Butler will finally arrive
Playoff Jimmy Butler apparently missed the flight to Denver, or maybe it was his day off. Jimmy Butler wasn't his usual postseason self in Game 1. While he did have seven rebounds and seven assists, he finished with just 13 points on 6-of-14 shooting from the field. The six-time All-Star lacked aggression throughout the game, especially through the second quarter onwards. Taking just 14 shots is simply not enough for a player of Butler's caliber, especially with how much he means for this Heat offense.
In addition, perhaps the most glaring stat from Butler's line Thursday night was the zero free-throw attempts. Yes, you read that right. Butler did not get to the line once during Game 1. That's particularly telling of just how much the 33-year-old was out of sorts to open the Finals. Before the championship round, Butler was averaging over nine free-throw attempts per game in the playoffs. His absence from the free-throw line suggested he lacked an attack-first mentality even though the Nuggets don't have a legitimate rim protector.
That is why we are expecting Butler to come out with a more aggressive mindset in Game 2, just like the real Playoff Jimmy would. Butler is too much of a competitor to keep playing passively.
3. Miami Heat will steal Game 2
With Playoff Jimmy showing up, and Martin and Strus no longer out of their funk, we boldly predict Miami to win Game 2 and steal home-court advantage. Sure, Game 1 suggested the Heat have a lot to iron out heading into Game 2, especially defensively. But the Heat will need to stay the course in terms of the shots they were able to generate from beyond the arc. They missed a ton of open looks, and as long as they continue to get those looks, they should be fine.
Of course, a lot of the unsung role players' — or Butler calls them his “teammates” — confidence will also have to do with their franchise star setting the tone early and sustaining that aggressiveness through 48 minutes. And he should do just that in Game 2 as the Heat look to knot the series at one game apiece heading back to South Beach.
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