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The Los Angeles Dodgers and Miami Marlins will square off in some Saturday evening action in Miami. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a Dodgers-Marlins prediction and pick we have laid out below.
Simply put, the Los Angeles Dodgers are the best team in baseball. With an 87-37 record, by far the best in the league, Los Angeles is 19.5 games ahead of San Diego in the NL West. The rest of the regular season is merely a formality for this club, as all eyes are on October.
Miami seemed to be turning a corner in 2020, making the playoffs, but has not recaptured that magic. This season, a 54-71 record seemingly will result in another playoff miss. Miami seems to be stuck in a perpetual rebuild, which offers some exciting prospects, but not much else.
Here are the Dodgers-Marlins MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Dodgers-Marlins Odds
Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 (-114)
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-105)
Over: 6.5 (-118)
Under: 6.5 (-104)
Why The Dodgers Could Cover The Spread
Dustin May is the perfect reinforcement for this Dodgers club, not like they need much help, to begin with. May dominated in his first start since Tommy John, tossing five shutout innings with nine strikeouts. May walked two and only allowed one hit. Oddly enough, that game also came against these Miami Marlins. May has one of the nastiest curveballs in the league, a pitch he threw roughly 30 percent of the time against Miami, accounting for four of his nine strikeouts. Health has been the only deterrent in May’s career thus far, but his stuff came back just fine in his return from Tommy John.
Surprise surprise, this team has one of the best bullpens in the league. Los Angeles ranks third with a 3.15 bullpen ERA, striking out 466 batters in 434.1 innings. Four relievers, in particular, an unlikely bunch at that, have anchored this bullpen. Evan Phillips, claimed off waivers and armed with a reworked slider, has a 1.27 ERA in 50 appearances. Alex Vesia, who had less than 50 innings across parts of two seasons before 2022, has a 2.61 ERA in 50 appearances, striking out 12.6 batters per nine innings. Brusdar Graterol, acquired in the Mookie Betts mega-deal, has a 3.09 ERA in 43.2 innings. And finally, David Price, the one-time ace, has moved to the bullpen and pitched to a 2.61 ERA in 27 appearances.
At the plate, as you can glean based on the record, this team is as good as it gets. Mookie Betts leads the way for the club with 29 home runs, adding 12 steals and a team-leading .547 slugging percentage. Freddie Freeman has belted 42 doubles, which leads the league, adding 16 home runs, 80 RBI, and a team-leading .326 batting average. Trea Turner paces the team with 86 RBI and 20 stolen bases, adding 18 home runs and 33 doubles. Los Angeles ranks second in the league with 262 doubles and ranks sixth with 80 stolen bases.
Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread
Luckily for Miami, they are sending their best to the mound in this one, with Sandy Alcantara taking the ball. Alcantara is a legitimate Cy Young candidate this season, going 11-6 with a 2.19 ERA in 176.2 innings across his 25 starts. Like May, Alcantara’s last start came against the team he will face tonight. Unlike May, Alcantara’s was forgettable, as he was roughed up for six earned runs in just 3.2 innings. Armed with a fastball that averages 97.9 mph, Alcantara actually throws his changeup the most of his five pitches. That changeup has held batters to a .151 batting average against, with 59 of his 157 strikeouts coming on the pitch. Batters have fared “best” against Alcantara’s sinker, a pitch they are hitting just .248 against.
Miami’s bullpen has not been great, as evidenced by last night’s extra-innings loss. Steven Okert and Richard Bleier have been the best options, as both left-handers have ERAs below 4.00. Okert owns a 2.45 ERA with 57 strikeouts in just 44 innings.
Miami’s offense has also struggled this season, and the team just jettisoned veteran Jesus Aguilar, who led the team with 15 home runs. Spark plug infielder Jaz Chisholm is out for the season, which was a huge blow to the lineup. Garrett Cooper is the best remaining healthy veteran in the lineup. Cooper has a team-leading 24 doubles, hitting .266 in 95 games. Rookie outfielder JJ Bleday is up and receiving a ton of playing time, hitting 4 home runs in 104 at-bats. Jon Berti has a unique skill set, stealing 30 bases, adding to the team’s league-leading 105 stolen bases.
Final Dodgers-Marlins Prediction & Pick
I would be shocked if there was much offense in this one.
Final Dodgers-Marlins Prediction & Pick: Los Angeles -1.5 (-114), under 6.5 (-104)