The Cleveland Guardians take on the Seattle Mariners. Check out our MLB odds series for our Guardians Mariners prediction and pick.

Zach Plesac goes to the bump for the Guardians, while Luis Castillo gets the call for the Mariners.

Zach Plesac has had a volatile year for Cleveland. He pitched to a 2.10 ERA in the month of June but has fallen well off that pace over the past two months. Since July 10, Plesac has been close to a six-run-ERA pitcher. From July 10 through his most recent start on Aug. 16, a span of seven appearances, Plesac has pitched 34 1/3 innings and allowed 23 earned runs. That’s roughly two earned runs allowed every three innings. He pitched really well on Aug. 11 against the Detroit Tigers, but that’s the only particularly good start he has delivered since July 4. It’s true that Plesac is 2-11 on the year and hasn’t won an official decision since June 5. However, he has been extremely unlucky regarding run support. On a starting rotation with Triston McKenzie and Shane Bieber, Plesac is a back-end starter. As far as back-end starters go, his 4.43 season ERA is entirely respectable. It just hasn’t translated to a lot of wins.

Luis Castillo did not give up more than three earned runs in any start from June 28 through Aug. 15. It was only in his last outing on Aug. 21 that he stepped into a pothole. He allowed four runs and eight hits to the A’s in five innings in an unexpected loss. Castillo had delivered three very strong starts for the Mariners since coming over from the Cincinnati Reds. His one subpar performance in Oakland this past Sunday should properly be seen as an aberration. That point aside, the Mariners can win the series if Castillo can dominate Cleveland. The M’s continue to improve their position in the push for a playoff berth which has eluded the franchise for the past 21 years.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Guardians-Mariners MLB odds.

MLB Odds: Guardians-Mariners Odds

Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-146)

Seattle Mariners: -1.5 (+122)

Over: 7 (-118)

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Under: 7 (-104)

Why The Guardians Could Cover the Spread

The Guardians have been shut down by Seattle pitching over the past two games. Not only is the overall reality bad — three runs scored in 20 innings — but two of those innings were extra inning with the Manfred Man, a runner on second to start the frame. Cleveland did not score in either of those innings. The Guardians scored in the first inning of Game 1 of this series on Thursday, and have since scored one run in the next 19 innings.

When a solid team goes through that kind of drought, the laws of averages are bound to even out, much as the laws of averages are bound to even out for Zach Plesac, who hasn’t won a decision since June 5.

Why The Mariners Could Cover the Spread

After a disappointing performance against the A’s this past Sunday, Luis Castillo should get back on the beam and pitch well. He should definitely be able to outperform Zach Plesac. The pitching matchup is decidedly in the Mariners’ favor for this game. The Mariners aren’t hitting well, but their pitching is carrying them right now. Castillo isn’t going to have consecutive mediocre outings.

Final Guardians-Mariners Prediction & Pick

This is probably a stay-away game, just because Cleveland has hit terribly in Seattle and is going to get better at some point. It might not be against Luis Castillo, but it will happen before too long. If you do insist on a pick in this game, lean to the Mariners because of Castillo.

Final Guardians-Mariners Prediction & Pick: Mariners -1.5