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As the Detroit Tigers gear up for the ALDS (American League Division Series) against the Cleveland Guardians, all eyes are on ace Tarik Skubal, who appeared to suffer an injury during the Wild Card round. His scheduling and performance could dictate the pace and strategy for the Tigers in this crucial series.
Skubal, fresh off an 88-pitch outing in the Tigers' Game 1 Wild Card victory, is pivotal in the team's playoff blueprint. Known for his resilience and filth on the mound, Skubal has maintained a pitching routine with at least four days' rest throughout the 2024 season, aligning with what is considered standard rest patterns for starting pitchers.
Given this pattern, the most likely scenario for Skubal in the ALDS involves him taking the mound for Game 2 on five days' rest and, if necessary, returning for Game 5 on four days' rest. Both of these games will be held at Progressive Field in Cleveland, presenting a consistent environment that could play to Skubal's strengths.
“I expect Skubal will pitch Game 2 and 5 (if necessary) in the ALDS. Although unlikely, short-rest starts would allow him to pitch Game 1 and Game 3, plus Game 1 of a potential ALCS on normal rest,” via Evan Woodbery on X, formerly Twitter.
Tarik Skubal and the Tigers eye a World Series title
However, the Tigers have another option involving a more aggressive approach—pitching Skubal on short rest. This would allow him to start Game 1 in Cleveland on Saturday and pitch again in Game 3 in Detroit on October 9. This setup maximizes his availability and keeps him on regular rest for a potential Game 1 in the ALCS (American League Championship Series), should the Tigers advance.
Such a decision comes with considerable risks. Skubal has pitched significantly more innings this year—192—compared to previous seasons, with a career-high that surpasses his combined total from 2022 and 2023. These were years notably impacted by his recovery from flexor tendon surgery. Moreover, Skubal has only once pitched on fewer than four days' rest during his career, and that instance involved a shorter, three-inning stint as part of a tandem start early in 2021.
The decision on how to deploy Skubal is complex. The Tigers must balance their immediate needs against the potential long-term impact on their star pitcher's arm, especially considering his past injuries and the intense workload of the current season.
For Game 1, the Tigers appear to have several other viable options. Reese Olson, who has returned from the injured list to make short but effective starts, is a strong candidate. The team could also opt for left-handed pitchers Tyler Holton or Sean Guenther to leverage matchups against Cleveland’s left-heavy lineup.
As the series opener approaches, the Tigers' management is likely keeping their strategies close to the vest, weighing their options on Skubal's usage against the backdrop of their overall pitching roster's condition and strategic matchups against the Guardians.
Ultimately, whether Skubal pitches early in the series or is saved for games later in the series will reveal much about the Tigers' confidence in their bullpen and rotational depth, as well as their approach to navigating the postseason.
