It's a testament to the Houston Astros' resiliency as a franchise that despite the departures of some of their key players over the offseason and persistent injury woes plaguing the team, they still find themselves sitting atop the AL West with a 64-50 record. On Tuesday, the Astros took care of business against the Marlins, grabbing a 7-3 victory on the road.
Nonetheless, things may very well get better for the Astros soon, particularly on the injury front. One of their key starting pitchers, Cristian Javier, started just seven games in 2024 and has missed all of 2025 thus far — missing time since the 21st of May last year after suffering an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery.
Javier, however, has been on the comeback trail for a while now, and on Tuesday, he made what was possibly his last rehab start before returning to the majors. And suffice to say, Javier was solid enough for the Astros' Triple-A affiliate at Sugar Land. On Tuesday, he pitched 3.2 innings and allowed just one run, throwing 43 of his 77 pitches for strikes, as per Brian McTaggart of MLB.com.
While Javier may want to bump up the percentage of his pitches that go for strikes, the Astros will take his ability to throw 77 pitches as a very good sign leading up to his eventual return. Now, the ideal is that Javier manages to get through more than 3.2 innings if he throws 77 pitches, but they can afford to give him time to round back into form after such a lengthy absence.
It's not quite clear if the Astros will deem this rehab start to be good enough for him to return, however. The command was very shaky for the 28-year-old, and some more time in Triple-A might work wonders for him in the long run.
Can Cristian Javier battle declining peripherals in return to Astros rotation?
The start of the 2024 season was already looking worrisome for the 28-year-old starter. His key peripherals were trending the wrong way already prior to his elbow injury. His strikeout rate was down to 7.01 percent and his walk rate was ballooning to 4.93 — both career-worsts if they hold.
His declining fastball velocity is also concerning. He was averaging around 93 or 94 miles per hour on his fastball over the past two seasons, but that number is down to 92.0 in seven starts.
Perhaps Javier was already battling pain in his elbow before having to undergo Tommy John surgery, leading to declining peripherals. But the Astros have to be very careful not to rush him back lest they throw him into the wolves before he's ready to fend for himself.
